LSU vs Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Picks Today: College Football Week 6

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The LSU Tigers take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, Kentucky, on Saturday, Oct. 10. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

LSU is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -330. Kentucky, meanwhile, enters as a +9.5 underdog and is +260 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.

Here’s my LSU vs. Kentucky prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 10.

• LSU vs. Kentucky Pick: LSU -9.5

My Kentucky vs. LSU best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.

LSU vs Kentucky Odds, Line, Spread

• LSU vs Kentucky point spread: LSU -9.5, Kentucky +9.5
• LSU vs Kentucky over/under: 50.5 Points
• LSU vs Kentucky moneyline: LSU ML -345, Kentucky ML +275

LSU has bounced back nicely after the disappointing loss to Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago. It walloped Texas A&M, 35-6, and then expectedly thrashed McNeese State by a score of 63-14.

But from here on, it’s conference play only for the Tigers, and the competition is only going to get harder.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt is supremely talented, but he has to find a way to keep the ball out of the opposing team’s hands. He’s thrown at least one interception in every game this season and leads the FBS with seven of them in total.

I still think he’s good enough to lead a team like he did for Arizona State a few seasons ago, but it’s concerning how frequently he throws picks.

If I’m an LSU fan, I feel much more comfortable running the ball.

Leavitt has shown to be a dual-threat quarterback, but Dilin Jones is having a career season already, averaging 4.5 yards per carry with five touchdowns.

It’s truly a “pick your poison” in the run game, as Harlem Berry and Stacy Gage each are averaging seven yards per carry.

And it may be the best thing for the Tigers to pound the rock all game. Kentucky has had a hard time beating the run all season, averaging 165 yards per game.

Now on the defensive side of the ball, LSU suffered a major loss, losing second-leading tackler Whit Weeks, who suffered a fractured fibula in the Texas A&M game.

Luckily for the Tigers, they have the FBS leader in both sacks (8.0) and tackles for loss (10.0) in Princewill Umanmielen, who’s a driving force in helping LSU’s defense achieve Havoc on 24.1% of snaps.

Kentucky has been riding a high this season. The addition of Will Stein as head coach has greatly improved not just the on-field results, but the overall outlook of the program.

Last week against South Carolina, the Wildcats went down, 17-0, for most of the first half, until they finally got on the board with a CJ Baxter touchdown.

From there, it was all Kentucky. And while South Carolina did its best to hold the Wildcats off, it was they who came out with a win on the final second of overtime.

Aside from Stein, quarterback Kenny Minchey has been the face of this program’s turnaround, and it was evident last week. He completed 68% of his passes while throwing for three touchdowns and no picks.

He’s formed a tremendous connection with freshman receiver Kenny Darby, the SEC Co-Freshman of the Week.

But for the most part, this team thrives more on the run. Both running backs Jason Patterson and Baxter have helped the Wildcats achieve the nation’s fifth-best Rushing Success Rate.

The defense is where I have a lot of concern. Kentucky ranks outside the top 100 in passing down Success Rate allowed, Passing Success Rate allowed and Rushing Success Rate allowed. Along with that, it ranks 93rd in points allowed per game.

There are some solid pieces in Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace, Jordan Castell and Grant Godfrey, but the execution hasn’t been there, and the offense has bailed them out.

As much as I like Kentucky this season, I don’t think there’s a real match here.

LSU simply has too much star power on the offensive end, along with a dominant defense that can pose trouble for the Wildcats.

Kentucky has shown that it has a hard time matching up against top-10 teams, as it did with Alabama. And I expect the Tigers to hammer the run throughout.

They can easily dominate through the air, but in order to stabilize Leavitt’s mojo, the Tigers can definitely win this game by the work of their running backs.

Our projections have LSU favored by over 10 points, even on the road, so I’m happy to take LSU to cover.

Pick: LSU -9.5 (-105)