K-State Preview

What’s the difference between a Kansas State football fan and a Kansas football fan?

The last time KU beat K-State (in football), George W. Bush was president, Mark Mangino was coaching the Jayhawks, and the iPhone had been around for barely a year.

Since then, Kansas has employed Turner Gill, Charlie Weis, David Beaty, Les Miles, and Lance Leipold. The Jayhawks have played in three bowl games, rebuilt their football stadium, gone through multiple athletic directors, and spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to turn football into something resembling a respectable Power Four program.

And they still can’t beat Kansas freaking State.

I’m guessing most of the folks reading this know how we got here. Kansas spent most of the 2010s committing institutional malpractice while Bill Snyder continued producing competitive football teams in Manhattan. The Wildcats were better coached, better developed, more physical, and generally better at everything associated with playing football. K-State couldn’t build a program that could win a national title (obviously). They could, however, build a program that could beat KU into a pulp over and over and over again.

Fine.

But that explanation has an expiration date.

Lance Leipold is in his sixth season at Kansas. Travis Goff has been the athletic director since 2021. The program has resources, facilities, stability, and a coaching staff that has demonstrated it can compete with legitimate Big 12 opponents.

Leipold is also 0-5 against Kansas State.

He didn’t create this mess, and neither did Goff. They deserve considerable credit for digging Kansas out of the hole their predecessors created. But at the same time, they’re still responsible for part of this streak. And at some point, the people collecting seven-figure salaries to run Kansas football need to figure out how to beat Kansas State.

Now, Saturday brings us one of the stranger Sunflower Showdowns in recent memory.

Kansas is 2-3, 0-2 in Big 12 play, and coming off a 41-24 loss at #12 Utah. K-State is 3-2, also 0-2 in conference, and just got humiliated 35-16 at home by Houston.

Neither fan base is particularly excited about its football team. In fact, judging from the general mood surrounding both programs, each side seems thoroughly convinced that its team is about to lose.

K-State fans have watched their defense get pushed around for two consecutive conference games. Kansas fans have watched their team lose this particular game for 17 consecutive years.

Something’s gotta give.

PREGAME

KU and K-State will meet for the 124th time Saturday morning in Manhattan. Kickoff is scheduled for 11 a.m. on FS1.

Obligatory – Kansas leads the all-time series 65-53-5. K-State claims the series is 64-54-5, because they count the 1980 game that Kansas won on the field but was subsequently ordered to forfeit by the Big Eight. (More on this later.)

K-State has won 17 consecutive meetings, beginning in 2009. The Jayhawks’ last victory was a 52-21 beatdown in Lawrence in 2008; you may still refer to it as the Jake Sharp game.

Potentially interesting: K-State scheduled KU for Homecoming this year. Of course they did, because apparently 17-straight wins weren’t enough to convince the KSU AD it was safe to invite the alumni back to campus.

The Wildcats opened the season 3-0 before losing 31-26 at Cincinnati and 35-16 at home against Houston. Kansas has beaten LIU and Middle Tennessee State, while losing to Missouri, Arizona State, and Utah.

Both teams are looking for their first Big 12 victory.

This is also Collin Klein’s first Sunflower Showdown as K-State’s head coach. Klein was 2-0 against KU as a starting QB for K-State (2011-12).

FIRST DOWN

Can Kansas actually run the football?

This should be a favorable matchup for Kansas.

Should.

K-State’s defensive line has been getting absolutely mauled in conference play. Cincinnati exposed the Wildcats’ problems up front, and Houston apparently watched the film and decided that looked like fun. The Cougars rushed for 233 yards on 43 carries, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. They collected 13 rushing first downs, while K-State managed exactly one tackle for loss and zero sacks.

Houston didn’t need a bunch of 60-yard runs to accomplish this, either. It repeatedly gained four, five, and six yards, stayed ahead of the chains, and wore down the Wildcats. BOTC even gave the K-State defensive line an F and essentially concluded that the Wildcats don’t have the personnel to fix the problem.

That’s encouraging!

Less encouraging is the fact that Kansas is coming off a game in which it rushed for 58 yards against Utah. One week after rolling up a school-record 473 rushing yards against Middle Tennessee State, the Jayhawks averaged just 2.8 yards per carry against the Utes. (KSU transfer) Dylan Edwards led the team with 22 yards on nine attempts.

Now, Utah is considerably better defensively than K-State. But the discrepancy is still pretty ridiculous. KU has an explosive running back in Edwards and a quarterback in Isaiah Marshall who can threaten defenses with his legs. Against a K-State front that has struggled to hold up physically, the Jayhawks ought to be capable of establishing a consistent rushing attack.

And if Kansas can’t run the football against this particular K-State defense?

Well, I don’t know what to tell you.

Actually, I do.

It rhymes with “smeighteen.”

SECOND DOWN

Remember when Avery Johnson was supposed to be one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the country?

He still has that ability. He’s a terrific athlete with the speed to turn a broken play into a 40-yard gain, and his mobility can fundamentally change how a defense approaches the game. But the K-State offense hasn’t been particularly impressive lately.

Against Houston, Johnson completed 16 of 30 passes for 182 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. The Wildcat offense rushed for just 117 yards, generated 299 total yards, and spent most of the afternoon on the sideline watching Houston do whatever it wanted instead. BOTC’s offensive review was especially critical of Johnson’s tendency to settle for short throws rather than using his legs to create opportunities – a critique I also frequently hear from the K-State fans around the watercooler at my real job.

K-State’s offensive line has been much better protecting the quarterback than creating running lanes, but the receiving corps hasn’t consistently generated explosive plays. Kansas actually has an opportunity here. The Jayhawk defense wasn’t nearly as bad against Utah as the final score suggested, particularly considering the offense’s inability to sustain possessions. KU forced two turnovers, recorded three sacks, and held the Utes to 27 points through three quarters.

Of course, Utah also rushed for 287 yards and gained 545 yards overall. So, you know, there’s that.

The danger for KU is obvious. Johnson has the athletic ability to punish defenses that lose containment or overcommit to stopping the running backs. And after weeks of K-State fans wondering why Johnson hasn’t been more aggressive with his legs, you can probably guess which opponent would be the most KU-football-appropriate one for him to rediscover that part of his game.

Kansas needs to keep him in the pocket, make him work through his progressions, and prevent the Wildcats from turning ordinary plays into explosive gains.

Because if Johnson starts running wild, this could will get ugly in a hurry.

THIRD DOWN

For all the frustration surrounding KU’s loss at Utah, Isaiah Marshall gave us something genuinely encouraging. Making just his fifth career start, Marshall threw for 333 yards and two touchdowns against one of the better defenses in the country. He was far from perfect, completing 19 of 37 passes with an interception. But he also made some excellent throws, demonstrated a willingness to attack downfield, and managed to avoid being sacked despite the complete absence of a running game.

Cam Pickett finished with eight receptions for 134 yards, and Kansas repeatedly showed an ability to generate explosive passing plays. That matters.

K-State’s problems against Houston weren’t limited to stopping the run. The Cougars also threw for 242 yards and four touchdowns, with tight end Patrick Overmyer catching all four touchdown passes. Houston forced the Wildcats to devote additional defenders to stopping the run, then exploited favorable matchups in the passing game.

I’m here to tell you that Kansas has the personnel to create similar problems. Marshall should have opportunities to attack K-State’s secondary, even more so if the Jayhawks can establish Edwards early. And unlike earlier in the season, KU has at least demonstrated that its young quarterback can make throws against a quality opponent. The question is whether Kansas can sustain drives rather than relying on occasional big plays.

Against Utah, the Jayhawks averaged a respectable 6.7 yards per play but possessed the ball for less than 21 minutes. They converted just four of 13 third downs and came away with points on only three of five red-zone opportunities. Meanwhile, Utah went five-for-five in the red zone, including a particularly painful goal-line sequence that essentially decided the game.

Kansas can move the football. That’s no longer the biggest question.

Can it finish drives?

Because leaving points on the field against K-State has become something of an annual tradition.

Speaking of which…

FOURTH DOWN

How many different ways can Kansas lose the same football game?

There haven’t been very many competitive Sunflower Showdowns during this streak. For most of the 2010s, K-State simply showed up, pushed Kansas around for three hours, collected its victory, and went home. But every once in a while, Kansas has managed to get within striking distance.

And that’s when things got really stupid.

In 2017, KU had a legitimate fourth-quarter opportunity before ultimately losing 30-20. A 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by K-State didn’t help.

Then came 2018, aka the Sunflower Screwjob. Kansas led in the fourth quarter before a remarkable collection of questionable holding calls, missed opportunities, and general football incompetence allowed K-State to escape with a 21-17 victory.

The Jayhawks weren’t blameless. Not even close. But the officiating was so absurd that I dedicated an entire Semi-Statistical Recap to it. I’ll never forget, and you shouldn’t either.

In 2023, Kansas led 27-16 in the third quarter despite starting a true-freshman walk-on quarterback. Then Will Howard threw a pass directly to a wide open receiver in KU linebacker Rich Miller. All Miller had to do was catch the football. There was nobody between him and the end zone. A pick-six would have given Kansas a 33-16 lead, pending the extra point. He dropped it, K-State went on to score, KU later muffed a punt, and the Wildcats won 31-27.

Then came 2024. Kansas led 27-26 with less than four minutes remaining, needing only to protect the football and run out the clock. Jalon Daniels fumbled, K-State recovered, kicked a 51-yard field goal, and won 29-27.

Even last year – KU recovered a fumble on the opening kickoff and punched it in for an early 7-0 lead. K-State scored three unanswered touchdowns, including returning a botched KU punt snap for a TD. Yet the Jayhawks were only down seven at halftime. Unfortunately for KU, football games are four quarters long!

Do you see the problem here?

It’s not simply that Kansas has been terrible for most of the last two decades (although that’s certainly part of it). It’s that even when Kansas has been good enough to win this game, the Jayhawks have repeatedly found spectacularly stupid ways to lose. At some point, bad luck stops being an adequate explanation.

Leipold has turned Kansas into a program capable of competing in the Big 12. He’s won games that would have been unimaginable under his predecessors, developed NFL talent, and restored some measure of respectability to Kansas football.

That’s all true.

It’s also true that he’s lost five consecutive games to Kansas State.

The last three haven’t all been hopeless mismatches. Kansas has had opportunities and failed.

Enough already. This has passed the point of embarrassment. It’s an albatross around the neck of the entire KU program. If Leipold can’t win this game either this year or next, he’s got to go.

PREDICTION

On paper, Kansas can win this game.

K-State can’t stop the run. Its offense has been inconsistent. The Wildcats just got pushed around in their own stadium by Houston, and the betting market has moved considerably toward Kansas. Meanwhile, Marshall is coming off a 333-yard passing performance against Utah, and the Jayhawks have demonstrated enough offensive ability to exploit K-State’s weaknesses.

There are real, legitimate reasons to believe Kansas can finally end the streak.

I’ve heard them before. In fact, I’ve written them before.

In 2019, I picked Kansas to win because I thought Les Miles had the Jayhawks headed in the right direction, the offense was improving, and K-State looked vulnerable. Kansas lost by four touchdowns. Last year, I wrote that K-State was having a down year, noted that Kansas was favored, and again suggested the streak might finally end, and so of course KU goes out and loses by 3+ touchdowns.

I’ve spent years on this site predicting K-State blowouts (yes, I have receipts), occasionally talking myself into believing KU has a chance, and then watching the Wildcats win regardless. So forgive me if I’m not particularly interested in explaining why this year’s matchup is any different.

Both sides are convinced their team is going to lose, so someone is going to be pleasantly surprised Saturday afternoon. I’d love for it to be us, but I’m in full see-it-to-believe-it mode. Until KU actually beats Kansas State, I’m done giving this program the benefit of the doubt.

K-State 38, Kansas 20.

Because what’s the difference between a Kansas State football fan and a Kansas football fan?

One of them has spent the last 17 years laughing at Kansas football. The other is overanalyzing last night’s Late Night scrimmage.

EXTRA POINT

Kansas leads the all-time series against K-State 65-53-5.

Unless you ask K-State, which claims the series is 64-54-5.

The disagreement dates to 1980, when Kansas defeated K-State 20-18 in Manhattan. The Big Eight subsequently ordered Kansas to forfeit the victory because of an eligibility violation involving Kerwin Bell. Kansas continues to recognize the victory on the field, while K-State counts the conference-awarded forfeit. Unfortunately for K-State, conference-ordered forfeits don’t change the NCAA’s official records, so the result on the field stands.

So, according to K-State, the Wildcats won a football game in 1980 in which they were outscored 20-18.

That’s K-State math for ya.