Jumbo Package: Alabama football at LSU previews and predictions

Happy Friday, everyone. The women’s basketball team feasted on yet another cupcake last night to move to 3-0, this time taking down Alabama A&M by a 96-43 margin. The men play tonight against Arkansas State, and we will have coverage of that one later on.

Alabama football plays at LSU tomorrow, as you well know. Your previews:

Alabama gets an immediate chance to justify its CFP ranking, while LSU can strengthen its argument with a win that leaves the Tide staring at three losses. I picked LSU to win this game in August, and I’m sticking with the Tigers’ passing game at home against an Alabama secondary still sorting through injuries.

Sam Leavitt throws for 278 yards and two touchdowns, and Jackson Harris catches both of them while finishing with 110 receiving yards. LSU wins 26-20, keeping its SEC title hopes alive and giving Alabama fans another reason to avoid the internet.

Alabama football needs this win. Kalen DeBoer wins after idle weeks. And the Crimson Tide knows how to win against LSU on the road. All of these remain true. But this is a new Tigers team in a new era with Lane Kiffin at the helm. It’s a unit starting to find itself after single-score losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky. LSU has the second best scoring offense and defense in the SEC. It has the No. 1 total offense and defense in the SEC. This is a Tigers team that is waiting for an opportunity to see what it can do against the upper echelon of SEC play in November, and the Crimson Tide is the first team in LSU’s way. Alabama has looked like the best team in the country before on the road, beating Mississippi State to a pulp in Starkville, but the same couldn’t be said about Kentucky in Lexington, or, especially, Tennessee in Knoxville. Expect the Crimson Tide to falter against LSU.

Prediction: No. 15 LSU 31, No. 9 Alabama 24

While the combination of LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt and Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell provides the potential for plenty of points, this game could end up being decided by both defenses. Alabama’s offensive injuries have clearly limited their ability to execute on schedule, and LSU’s defense represents the best test they’ve faced since the loss at Tennessee. In the same manner, LSU’s pass attack could set them up for some of the turnovers that have powered Alabama’s excellence this season (+7 turnover margin is tied for 11th nationally) and prevent touchdowns even after successful drives. All in all, it points to a lower-scoring classic, where I’ll favor the home team to make big plays late.

LSU is a completely different animal in Baton Rouge.

It’s an afternoon game instead of an ultra-amped up night showdown in Death Valley, but it shouldn’t matter too much that the Tiger fan base is just a little less … prepared.

Yeah, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Auburn are, arguably, the three best teams LSU faced, which is why those road games were tough, but LSU hasn’t even let the opponents breathe at home, winning all five games by a combined score of 225-44 with the closest game a 35-6 win over Texas A&M.

LSU won’t destroy Alabama, and it’ll be a back-and-forth fight, but there will be that moment in the second half when it all clicks, and the Tigers will put the game away with a sharp scoring drive. The crowd will take over from there.

LSU 30, Alabama 23

John Brice: LSU

Matt Hayes: LSU

Jordan Mendoza: Alabama

Paul Myerberg: LSU

Erick Smith: Alabama

Eddie Timanus: LSU

Blake Toppmeyer: LSU

Craig Meyer: Alabama 31, LSU 27

LSU 35, Alabama 28: Tigers quarterback Sam Leavitt was flat out bad in his first three games: He threw three touchdowns and five interceptions against Clemson, Louisiana Tech and Ole Miss. Since then, he has completed 75.4% of his passes and has vastly reduced his turnovers as he’s adjusted to coach Lane Kiffin’s system. Keelon Russell can get just as hot for the Crimson Tide. We just haven’t seen as much of that lately, so we’ll lean toward Leavitt and Co. here. — Adam Bittner, USA TODAY

This LSU team continues to impress. They now enter Week 10 ranking first in the entire country in net adjusted EPA per play, seventh in net yards per play, and seventh in net success rate. That’s a step above Alabama, which ranks fifth, 15th, and ninth in those three metrics.

The one weakness that LSU has is stopping the run, ranking just 54th in opponent EPA per rush, but unfortunately for the Crimson Tide, they haven’t run the ball efficiently this season, ranking just 50th in EPA per rush. Without the ability to take advantage of LSU’s biggest weakness, this is going to be a tough road game for Alabama.

I’ll lay the points with the Tigers.

The sportsbooks have LSU laying nearly a touchdown at home against Alabama. That means at a neutral site, LSU would be favored by roughly a field goal, so Las Vegas believes the Tigers are the better team. While LSU has played better of late, and I would anticipate Lane Kiffin dialing up some trickeration in this game, LSU hasn’t beaten Alabama since 2022 and Kiffin historically has struggled against the Tide. Give me Alabama to win a close one inside Tiger Stadium Saturday. Alabama 24, LSU 21

That last one is from The Daily Advertiser. We see what you’re trying to pull, bro.

There is no reason whatsoever for Alabama fans to have much confidence in this one. We have a third of the starting lineup listed as questionable, and we saw what happened in Knoxville when none of those guys played. Word is that Alabama expects to get some key players back, but will they be 100%? On top of that, Keelon Russell has struggled at times against the blitz this season, and will be facing one of the most blitz-happy teams in the country.

It does appear that LSU will be without MLB Whit Weeks, so that will help. Still, this is perhaps the most hostile environment in the sport, against a team that leads the SEC in both offense and defense, that also happens to need this win to get into the playoff discussion after Tuesday night’s rankings dropped. Sure, they are in this position because they lost at Ole Miss and Kentucky, but those were road games.

Still, we Gump to a standard around here. The one thing that Alabama can point to is Sam Leavitt’s propensity to turn the ball over, and Alabama’s defense has been as opportunistic as any in the country. We’re going to say that the bye week afforded Russell the opportunity to learn from film study, and Alabama will get just enough guys back to get it done in Red Stick as they have so many times in the past. Leavitt has two picks, including one returned for a touchdown, and Alabama wins 30-27.

That is merely my hopium, of course. Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

Matt Stahl correctly notes that Alabama needs explosive plays in the passing game to win this one.

Ryan Coleman-Williams is on the road to recovery, but was still listed as questionable for LSU after missing the Tennessee and Texas A&M games. Tiger head coach Lane Kiffin predicted Thursday that the junior wideout will play, but that isn’t guaranteed.

Coleman-Williams can provide an explosive play threat whenever he’s on the field. Against Tennessee, that lack of explosives was obvious, and contributed to the loss.

That same thing can’t happen in Tiger Stadium. Even if its superstar receiver can’t go, Alabama has to find some big plays on offense.

Lotzeir Brooks is a threat, as is Rico Scott. The Crimson Tide could also find explosives from the likes of Derek Meadows and Cederian Morgan at receiver.

There always needs to be a semblance of balance, but this is not a “run the ball” game. LSU leads the SEC in rushing defense, allowing only 2.7 yards per carry and 85 yards per contest.

In order to push the ball down the field, Alabama’s tackles will have to neutralize DE Princewill Umanmielen.

Alabama has faced some prominent pass-rushers this season, but LSU defensive end Princewill Umanmielen has a strong argument to be the best. Umanmielen’s 8.5 sacks rank fifth in the country, while his 12 tackles for loss are tied for ninth. The senior is second in the SEC in each of these stat categories.

There have been numerous instances this season where Crimson Tide quarterback Keelon Russell has held the ball for too long, and giving any edge to Umanmielen, along with the rest of LSU’s pass-rush — which leads the country in sacks per game (4.4) — will make it very difficult for Alabama to come out on top.

None of this will be easy.

That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend.

Roll Tide.