‘It’s in the Hands of Your QB’ — Josh Pate Bluntly Rejects Idea of Arch Manning-Led Texas’ Chances of Winning National Championship

Arch Manning has Texas at No. 1 and undefeated through four games, but his start to the 2026 season is pointing toward a quarterback still searching for consistency. He has cracked 200 passing yards just twice this season and completed fewer than two-thirds of his passes on the year.

The Longhorns head into Saturday’s showdown against Oklahoma riding a defense that has not allowed more than 23 points all season, and the question building around this team is whether that unit can carry them all the way through January. CFB analyst Josh Pate addressed that directly this week and said, as it stands right now, it cannot.

Josh Pate Believes Arch Manning Is Not Yet at the Level Texas Needs for a National Championship Run

Texas enters the Oklahoma game favored by roughly eight points and as the top-ranked team in the country. The Longhorns have not lost a game this season, including a 24-23 comeback win over then-No. 1 Ohio State in Week 2 that announced them as genuine contenders.
But Pate’s point was about what a national championship run demands in December and January, when defenses improve, and a quarterback has to take over games. His case is that Manning is not there yet, and that the Longhorns’ identity right now runs through their defense, not their signal-caller.

Mike Greenberg set it up during a segment on ESPN’s “Get Up” by asking whether Texas had what it needed at quarterback to go all the way. In response, Pate said: “No. No, they can’t. They can be the number one team in the country in early October. They could beat Oklahoma. They could make the playoffs.”

“But there’s a big difference in being playoff caliber and being national championship caliber, because eventually someone else has a defense. So eventually, it’s in the hands of your quarterback.”

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Pate acknowledged that saying this out loud is not a popular position: “I know that’s unpopular. People don’t like to hear that because of the name on the back of the jersey. This is a defensive-oriented team right now.”

His argument was specifically about timing and what the Longhorns will need from their quarterback as the stakes rise.

“Do you watch them week over week and say, I see progression from Arch Manning? You may not need it in early October. You will need it in December and January,” he explained.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has given Manning every resource at the position. The Longhorns went into the transfer portal to add receiver depth this offseason, and Pate noted that those weapons are being incorporated into the offense more as the season progresses.

Manning’s numbers through four games have been productive but inconsistent. He exploded in Week 1, throwing for 305 yards and four touchdowns in a 59-7 blowout of Texas State.
Week 2 brought his most important moment of the season, as he threw for 195 yards and a touchdown while helping Texas erase a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit in a 24-23 win over No. 1 Ohio State.
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He was quieter in Week 3 against UTSA, completing just 50% of his passes for 161 yards, then settled himself with a composed 201-yard showing at Tennessee in Week 4, steering Texas to a 20-17 road win to stay undefeated.

According to PFN’s CFB QB Impact metric, Manning ranks 55th among college quarterbacks through four games of the 2026 season with a grade of 79.1, completing 63.5% of his passes for 862 yards and seven touchdowns against three interceptions.
No. 1 Texas faces Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas this Saturday, Oct. 10.

This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.