Illinois vs Texas Tech Prediction, Pick, College Basketball Odds for Tuesday, Nov. 10

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The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock, Texas. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Peacock/NBCSN.

Illinois is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. The total is set at 160.5 points.

Here’s my Illinois vs. Texas Tech prediction and college basketball picks for November 10, 2026.

Illinois vs Texas Tech Prediction

Pick: Texas Tech +1.5

My Illinois vs Texas Tech best bet is on the Red Raiders to cover the spread. Be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page and download the Action Network app for the latest picks and analysis.

Illinois vs Texas Tech Odds

• Illinois vs Texas Tech spread: Illinois -1.5 (-110), Texas Tech +1.5 (-110)
• Illinois vs Texas Tech over/under: 161.5 (-110o / -110u)
• Illinois vs Texas Tech moneyline: Illinois -122, Texas Tech +102

Illinois vs Texas Tech College Basketball Preview

Falling just short of its National Championship aspirations, Illinois once again enters the season as one of the best teams in the country.

While Keaton Wagler has departed for the NBA, Illinois reloaded with plenty of talented freshmen. Chief among them is No. 24 overall recruit Quentin Coleman, who steps in as Wagler’s replacement. Through two games, Coleman is averaging 16 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists in just 21.5 minutes per contest.

Granted, those numbers have come against two lower-level opponents that Illinois has dominated. Still, it’s an encouraging sign that the Fighting Illini haven’t missed a beat early in the season, especially with David Mirkovic still working his way back from injury.

The 6-foot-9 sophomore underwent offseason foot surgery, and a recent emergency appendectomy further delayed his return. He’s now expected back toward the end of November.

In the meantime, Illinois will lean on Andrej Stojakovic and the Ivisic brothers to carry much of the load.

In his second season with the Illini, Stojakovic has the potential to emerge as the No. 1 option in this offense. He broke out during the NCAA Tournament and has carried that momentum into year two.

Stojakovic has accounted for 34.2% of the team’s shots while on the floor and has scored at least 20 points in each game despite averaging just 21 minutes.

The Ivisic brothers, meanwhile, provide plenty of rim protection thanks to their length. Illinois ranks 10th nationally in average height, with much of that advantage coming from its two 7-footers.

It’ll be interesting to see how Illinois performs against legitimate competition, particularly without Mirkovic. The Illini enter Tuesday’s matchup with the No. 1 offense in the country in adjusted efficiency and an impressive 51.4% offensive rebounding rate.

Of course, Fairleigh Dickinson and Penn aren’t exactly equipped to handle Illinois’ size and physicality.

Stefan Vaaks has also been an early bright spot. The Providence transfer is 5-for-11 from beyond the arc and could become a major X-factor in these top-25 matchups.

Defensively, Illinois hasn’t generated many turnovers this season, ranking 314th nationally. Instead, the Illini have focused on staying disciplined and avoiding fouls, forcing opponents to settle for perimeter and mid-range looks.

That approach has helped produce back-to-back wins by 40-plus points.

Texas Tech boasts one of the most experienced rosters in college basketball, with National Championship aspirations firmly at the forefront for Grant McCasland and his staff.

Similar to Illinois, this will be the Red Raiders’ first real test of the season. Texas Tech opened with a pair of convincing wins against lesser opponents, holding both Jackson State and Bethune-Cookman under 60 points.

Offensively, this is a physical group that has prioritized its rim-and-3 rate. Texas Tech has taken 53.6% of its shots from beyond the arc, though the Red Raiders have struggled to the tune of a 26.7% clip.

That number should eventually climb. Donovan Atwell, who ranked 10th nationally in 3-point shooting last season at 45.8%, is connecting on just 18.8% of his attempts.

Even veteran transfers Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (UNLV) and Cruz Davis (Hofstra) are shooting below 30%, down more than 10 percentage points from last season.

Darrion Williams’ return to Lubbock is another major addition for McCasland and his staff. After leaving Texas Tech for NC State last season, Williams saw his 3-point percentage climb back above 40%. He was the focal point of the offense, accounting for 28.6% of the team’s shots during conference play.

On the opposite end of the floor, there are plenty of positives to look toward. Texas Tech ranks second nationally in turnover rate at 30% and has been excellent on the defensive glass — a major factor against a physical team like Illinois.

With JT Toppin still rehabbing from the ACL injury he suffered in February, McCasland has turned to Josiah Moseley and 6-foot-10 freshman Bassala Bagayoko. The latter will be particularly important in providing rim protection Tuesday night, as Illinois’ size can overwhelm opponents.

For all its experience and physicality, this isn’t an especially tall team. Bagayoko is the only rotational player taller than 6-foot-8, and he ranks seventh nationally in block rate at 21.8%. Staying out of foul trouble will be critical.

It should be important to note that Jamichael Stillwell was granted a temporary restraining order and is expected to play for Texas Tech on Tuesday. He’s a 6-foot-8 forward who averaged 8.2 rebounds at UCF last season.

McCasland’s no-middle defensive scheme helps compensate for the lack of size. Texas Tech is a versatile, athletic group that works to deny penetration through the middle of the floor. With constant switches and aggressive ball pressure, opponents are often forced to settle for perimeter shots.

Early in the season, opponents have taken 54.3% of their shots from beyond the arc. Texas Tech ranks 10th nationally in average 2-point attempt distance allowed (8.6 feet). That approach will be especially important against an Illinois team that does much of its damage around the rim.

I’m going to fade the public here and take the home underdog.

While Illinois has looked like a well-oiled machine to start the season, the offense is in the hands of a freshman facing his first true road test. Texas Tech’s defense is going to be aggressive, and the Illini have already shown some issues taking care of the basketball, turning it over 19 times against Penn.

Even without Toppin, I think Texas Tech has enough firepower to hang with one of the best teams in the country. It’s also hard to believe these veteran shooters will continue to struggle from beyond the arc. At some point, the shots will start falling, making this a perfect buy-low opportunity.

Illinois has been excellent at getting downhill, attacking the rim and crashing the offensive glass. But that’s exactly what Texas Tech’s no-middle defense is designed to take away.

I expect the Red Raiders to create some chaos defensively, while their offense finally starts to find its rhythm. In their biggest home game of the non-conference schedule, give me Texas Tech.

Pick: Texas Tech +1.5 (Play to PK)