Record-wise, there’s no hard-and-fast rule about who the College Football Playoff committee has to put into its tournament. The conference champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC are automatically in, along with the top-ranked Group of Six champion and, if it finishes in the top 12, Notre Dame.

However, in the two years with the 12-team format, there’s been one barrier that has yet to be broken: no Power Four program with three losses before the conference championships has made it in as an at-large team.

Alabama lost the SEC Championship last season and, very controversially, got the No. 9 seed at 10-3. Notre Dame, BYU, Vanderbilt, and Utah were all Power Four teams with two losses that were left out, but again, Bama had just two defeats before the SEC title game.

Texas was 9-3 with a totally excusable loss to Ohio State, but it didn’t get the call.

After the 2024 season, it was all relatively cut-and-dry. The conference champions all had an automatic spot – that was dropped in 2025 and brought back for this season – and 10-3 ACC champ Clemson got in.

Alabama was left out at 9-3 – yes, the College Football Playoff committee actually chose not to put in its beloved Crimson Tide – and 11-2 SMU made it in. Miami, BYU, and Iowa State all had fewer than three losses before the conference championships, but they were out.

Bottom line, at least for the last two years, if you were an SEC or Big Ten team that finished 10-2 or better, you got in.

This season might get really funky really fast, because there might not be enough 10-2 Power Four teams that might get the benefit of the doubt. The Big 12 and SEC are about to eat themselves up alive, and most of the top Big Ten teams have tapped out.

Out of the latest College Football Playoff top 25, how many Power Four teams will finish 10-2 or better? (Remember, Power Four conference champions are in, so there might be an outlier upset team that gets in with three or more losses, but as a champ, not an at-large team.)

Projected College Football Teams That Will Get In
Here we go. Along with the top-ranked Group of Six team, here are the 11 Power Four teams we think will get in. (Our call on the final records is BEFORE the conference championships – the final rankings will be decided after the conference championships, and everything changes with an upset.)
12-0: No one
11-1: Miami, Notre Dame, UCLA, Utah
10-2: Alabama, BYU, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Texas Tech
On the Bubble: Arizona (10-2: in if Texas 9-3, out if Texas 10-2), Tennessee (9-3), Texas (9-3, in if 10-2), Wake Forest (10-2)

Ranked Power Four Teams With Fewer Than Two Losses

These teams will likely have to collapse over the last three weeks to miss the playoff – they’ll almost certainly finish 10-2 or better. The likely final record doesn’t count projected conference championship results.

Georgia

CFP Ranking: 1 (8-1)
Remaining Schedule: Missouri, at South Carolina, Georgia Tech
Likely Final Record: 10-2
Will It Get In?: Yes

Utah

CFP Ranking: 2 (9-0)
Remaining Schedule: at Arizona, at TCU, West Virginia
Likely Final Record: 11-1
Will It Get In?: Yes

UCLA

CFP Ranking: 4 (9-0)
Remaining Schedule: Illinois, at Michigan, USC
Likely Final Record: 11-1
Will It Get In?: Yes

Notre Dame

CFP Ranking: 5 (8-1)
Remaining Schedule: Boston College, SMU, at Syracuse
Likely Final Record: 11-1
Will It Get In?: Yes

Miami

CFP Ranking: 7 (8-1)
Remaining Schedule: Duke, Virginia Tech, Boston College
Likely Final Record: 11-1
Will It Get In?: Yes

Indiana

CFP Ranking: 9 (8-1)
Remaining Schedule: USC, at Washington, Purdue
Likely Final Record: 10-2
Will It Get In?: Yes

Texas Tech

CFP Ranking: 12 (8-1)
Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma State, at Baylor, TCU
Likely Final Record: 10-2
Will It Get In?: Lean Yes

Wake Forest

CFP Ranking: 13 (8-1)
Remaining Schedule: at SMU, at Georgia Tech, Duke
Likely Final Record: 10-2
Will It Get In?: Lean No

Ranked Power Four Teams With Two Losses

These teams will be alive by winning out, and will need a break at 9-3. They’re out at 8-4 or worse.

Alabama

CFP Ranking: 3
Remaining Schedule: at Vanderbilt, Chattanooga, Auburn
Likely Final Record: 10-2
Will It Get In?: Yes

Texas

CFP Ranking: 6
Remaining Schedule: at LSU, Arkansas, at Texas A&M
Likely Final Record: 9-3
Will It Get In?: Toss Up

Tennessee

CFP Ranking: 8
Remaining Schedule: at Texas A&M, LSU, at Vanderbilt
Likely Final Record: 9-3
Will It Get In?: Toss Up

BYU

CFP Ranking: 10
Remaining Schedule: Baylor, at Kansas, Cincinnati
Likely Final Record: 10-2
Will It Get In?: Yes

Kentucky

CFP Ranking: 11
Remaining Schedule: Florida, at Missouri, Louisville
Likely Final Record: 9-3
Will It Get In?: Lean No

Houston

CFP Ranking: 14
Remaining Schedule: at Colorado, at West Virginia, Baylor
Likely Final Record: 9-3
Will It Get In?: No

Iowa

CFP Ranking: 15
Remaining Schedule: Purdue, at Illinois, Nebraska
Likely Final Record: 10-2
Will It Get In?: Yes

USC

CFP Ranking: 18
Remaining Schedule: at Indiana, Maryland, at UCLA
Likely Final Record: 9-3
Will It Get In?: Lean No

Arizona

CFP Ranking: 23
Remaining Schedule: Utah, at Kansas State, Arizona State
Likely Final Record: 10-2
Will It Get In?: Toss Up

Ranked Power Four Teams Already With Three Losses

These teams could still get in, but there’s a likely fourth loss coming that will realistically end the run.

Oregon

CFP Ranking: 16
Remaining Schedule: Michigan, at Michigan State, Washington
Likely Final Record: 9-3
Will It Get In?: Lean No

South Carolina

CFP Ranking: 17
Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas, Georgia, at Clemson
Likely Final Record: 8-4
Will It Get In?: No

Ole Miss

CFP Ranking: 19
Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma, Wofford, Mississippi State
Likely Final Record: 9-3
Will It Get In?: Lean No

Ohio State

CFP Ranking: 20
Remaining Schedule: Northwestern, at Nebraska, Michigan
Likely Final Record: 9-3
Will It Get In?: Toss Up

LSU

CFP Ranking: 21
Remaining Schedule: Texas, at Tennessee, at Arkansas
Likely Final Record: 8-4
Will It Get In?: No

Missouri

CFP Ranking: 22
Remaining Schedule: at Georgia, Kentucky, Oklahoma
Likely Final Record: 8-4
Will It Get In?: No

Oklahoma State

CFP Ranking: 25
Remaining Schedule: Texas Tech, at Arizona State, Kansas
Likely Final Record: 8-4
Will It Get In?: No

Source: Yahoo Sports