Heisman Watch 2026: Projecting Top 5 Heisman Trophy Finalists Before Week 1

Who will win the Heisman Trophy this season? It’s a loaded field of Heisman Trophy candidates in 2026, headlined by quarterbacks CJ Carr, Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Darian Mensah and Julian Sayin. With so many national championship contenders led by top-flight passers, the stats and clutch performances will define the 2026 college football season.

Let’s dive into our 2026 Heisman Watch entering Week 1, ranking how we think the Heisman ballot this season could finish.

1. Dante Moore, QB, Oregon Ducks

We think Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore will win the Heisman Trophy in 2026. He put up great numbers last season with a 71.8% completion rate, nearly 3,600 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns. There were just a few blemishes, primarily the Indiana game, that cost him. The Ducks’ schedule is more favorable this year, and Moore’s receiving corps is both healthier and deeper than it was a season ago. Even with a new offensive coordinator in Eugene, we think Moore will have the record, signature wins and gaudy statistics to win the Heisman.

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2. CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame Fighting Irish

C.J. Carr certainly has a very good chance of becoming the first Heisman Trophy winner for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish since wide receiver Tim Brown (1987). As a first-year starter in 2025, he ranked eighth in ESPN QBR (83.4) nationally, completed 66.6% of his passes and averaged 9.4 yards per attempt. With Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price off in the NFL, there will be even more weight from this offense placed on Carr’s shoulders. On top of that, he’ll have opportunities for Heisman moments at BYU (Oct. 17), vs. Miami (Nov. 7) and vs. SMU (Nov. 21). If Oregon and Notre Dame have nearly identical records, however, we think Moore’s flashier stats will be the deciding factor for some voters.

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3. Arch Manning, QB, Texas Longhorns

We believe Arch Manning will have the stats worthy of winning the Heisman Trophy. He is more than capable of putting up 45 total touchdowns this season while completing at least 65 percent of his passes with a highlight reel of a dual-threat quarterback that can be reminiscent of Caleb Williams and Baker Mayfield. There are also ample opportunities for him to have signature moments on the biggest stage. We just don’t think the Texas Longhorns win enough games this fall for Manning to overtake Dante Moore and CJ Carr. That says more about the difficulties of the SEC schedule, but the win-loss column will sway voters.

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4. Josh Hoover, QB, Indiana Hoosiers

It feels like the reigning national champions are being underrated entering the 2026 college football season. Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy with the Indiana Hoosiers this past season, more than doubling his passing touchdown total (16 to 41) from his previous year at Cal while seeing his yards per attempt skyrocket (7.8 to 9.3) and still throwing just 6 interceptions.

Quite frankly, we think the infrastructure surrounding quarterback Josh Hoover might be even better this season. He put up very good numbers last year at TCU–29-13 TD-INT, 3,472 passing yards and 73.6 ESPN QBR–and now he steps into Mike Shanahan’s offense while being supported by one of the best receiving corps in college football (Nick Marsh, Charlie Becker and Tyler Morris) with a top-10 offensive line. Hoover might not give Indiana back-to-back Heisman winners, but we do believe he’ll make it relatively close.

5. Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State Cowboys

Part of our rationale for putting quarterback Drew Mestemaker fifth on our projected final Heisman Trophy ballot is the narrative angle. The Oklahoma State Cowboys went 1-11 in 2025 and the football program is a combined 4-20 over the last two seasons. Mestemaker, who led the nation in passing yards (4,379) and tied for the second-most passing touchdowns (34) last year, now steps into a very quarterback-friendly offense. He obviously already has head coach Eric Morris’ system down, having followed him over from North Texas. We legitimately believe that Oklahoma State could win 7-8 games this season. That drastic of a year-to-year improvement paired with gaudy stats would warrant a fifth-place spot on Heisman Trophy ballots.

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