Games to watch during UNC’s second bye week

As UNC regroups from the collapse at Clemson on a bye week, UNC football fans have a lot of viewing options to choose from. Tomorrow morning, fellow Tar Heel Blog writer Matt Ferenchick will review some of the high profile match-ups nationally for you. Today, let’s look at some games that otherwise might fly under the radar.

Barometer games gives us more information on teams we’ve already played, helping us fans calibrate what those wins or losses really mean. This week’s football schedule provides two prominent barometer games involving the two P4 teams UNC has faced so far this season. Future opponent games let us see what awaits us later in the calendar. We have two this week that also happen to feature two quarterbacks who (a) were on the roster at some point last year and (b) have been putting up numbers for their team this season.

Barometer Game #1: TCU at UCF
Saturday, 2:30 pm EDT, FS1 or Fubo

UNC edged TCU in Dublin, stifling TCU’s offense and notching a 15-10 win in the pouring rain. TCU since then has played two cupcakes: Grambling State and Arkansas State. TCU won those contests by a combined score of 94-14, with Jaiden Craig completing 74% of his passes for 728 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception. TCU still doesn’t have the services of its #1 receiver, Jordan Dwyer, who’s been out since fall camp with a foot injury. A big offensive showing for TCU in this game bodes well for UNC’s defense.

UCF lost its sole P4 match-up to date at Pittsburgh, 12-7. Holding Pittsburgh and Mason Heintschel to 12 points seems notable, although it should be noted UCF gave up 24 points in the first half to Georgia State last weekend. So, UCF gives us a bit of a read on Pittsburgh as well.

Barometer Game #2: Clemson at Cal
Friday, 10:30 pm EDT, ESPN

Which Clemson team is the “real Clemson”? The one UNC dominated for nearly a half? Or the Clemson that dominated the last five minutes of the first half and most of the second?

Clemson’s offense looked like a grease fire against LSU and Georgia Southern. UNC’s defense in Clemson’s first five drives forced 3 punts, a fumble, and a field goal, which had Clemson fans starting to boo their own team. But, the Tigers last drive of the first half went 18 plays and 88 yards, ending two yards shy of the end zone with a field goal. At the time, that felt like a win for UNC’s defense, but Clemson’s true freshman QB found his footing on that drive. In the second half, Clemson would average 7.3 yards per rush and 13.9 yards per completion while outscoring UNC 22-3.

UCLA, under new head coach Bob Chesney, ran over Cal’s defense, under new head coach Tosh Lupoi. Cal gave up 277 rushing yards in a 45-24 loss. Cal then gave up 319 passing yards on the road to a Syracuse offense that’s been sputtering. On the other hand, Cal intercepted Syracuse’s Steve Angeli three times, returning one of them for a touchdown. That return touchdown proved the game winner in the 21-18 result.

How good is Clemson’s offense? Friday will shed a lot more light on that subject.

Next Opponent Game: Notre Dame at Purdue
Saturday, 2 pm EDT, Peacock.

So far, Notre Dame has led Wisconsin 13-10 at the half and Michigan State 17-10 at the half. Notre Dame tends to squeeze the life out of opponents rather than blow their doors off, so people expecting an Irish romp in Chapel Hill might be in for a surprise. While it’s likely Notre Dame’s depth and talent stretches into a big lead in the second half against UNC, Notre Dame’s the kind of elite team where the scoreboard doesn’t necessarily reflect the way Notre Dame controls a game. A slip in coverage, a big special teams play, or an ill-advised throw on the Irish side can make things suddenly interesting. Purdue, per the metrics, rates similarly to UNC overall, better on offense but worse on defense.

Bonus viewing: UNC initially liked Ryan Browne to be Bill Belichick’s first quarterback, signing him to a NIL contract in early 2025. After watching Browne during spring practice, though, Belichick and general manager Michael Lombardi thought they’d made a mistake, cutting the quarterback and bringing in Gio Lopez. The decision forfeited Browne’s NIL money as well as an entire spring practice of offensive installation. That’s how bad the UNC staff thought Browne was. This season, Browne ranks 16th nationally in QBR and 19th nationally in EPA per drop back. Again — UNC paid him to leave, as well as committing to a 2025 offense minus a QB with any spring reps. Inexcusable, but that’s increasingly par for the course with this program under Belichick’s direction.

Future Opponent Game: Wake Forest at Louisville

Saturday, 12 pm EDT, ESPN

Louisville narrowly lost a shoot-out to Ole Miss at their place to open the season. Same Ole Miss and same stadium environment that just took down LSU. Last week, Louisville beat SMU at home, averaging over seven yards per play on offense and turning SMU over three times on defense. Louisville now has the edge for that second ACC title game spot. Wake Forest this week and Pitt on Nov. 21 are probably the two toughest ACC games left on the Cardinals’ schedule. Louisville comes to Chapel Hill on Nov. 14.

Bonus viewing: Guess who currently ranks second in the ACC in passing yards? Gio Lopez. Guess who’s thrown for seven touchdowns and one interception? Gio Lopez. Guess whose QBR rating is 21.6 points higher than Billy Edwards? Gio Lopez. Guess which coach, hired a week after Bill Belichick and inheriting a program coming off two consecutive 4-8 seasons, is now 11-5 rather than 6-9? Gio Lopez’s coach, Jake Dickert.

Snark aside, Wake Forest played Miami deep into the fourth quarter last week, and this could be an exciting game.