College football Week 6 best bets: Texas, Wake Forest, UCF, JMU, Duke, Memphis, Air Force

No. 1 Texas is a 7.5-point favorite against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry in college football Week 6, and six of these seven spread picks lay the points, with UCF at No. 18 Oklahoma State the lone exception.

Unbeaten Duke lays 6.5 points at Georgia Tech, and 5-0 James Madison is a 7.5-point favorite at Georgia Southern, which has never lost to the Dukes in Statesboro. Four of the seven total picks take the over.

Hat tip to Game On Paper for providing a lot of the advanced stats and matchup data.

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UCF (+10.5) vs. Oklahoma State

UCF Knights defensive back Demari Henderson (8) intercepts a pass during the second half against the Georgia State Panthers | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 10, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2

No. 18 Oklahoma State (3-1, 1-0 Big 12) returns from a bye after a 41-24 win at West Virginia on Sept. 26. Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker threw for a season-high 389 yards and three touchdowns, and Wyatt Young caught eight passes for 192 yards.

But first-year Oklahoma State coach Eric Morris spent the off week self-scouting an offense that keeps settling for field goals.

“We haven’t been good offensively on third downs or sticking it in the end zone once we do get into the red zone,” Morris said Tuesday.

UCF (3-2, 1-1) led 17-0 in the third quarter at then-No. 20 Houston and lost 27-17. Knights quarterback Keyone Jenkins threw for a career-high 253 yards in place of starter Alonza Barnett III, who has missed three straight games with a hamstring injury and isn’t expected back this week.

“It kills me not to let it rip, but we got to make the decision (based on) what’s best for the football team,” UCF coach Scott Frost said.

That conservative approach shortens the game for a defense that ranks 16th nationally in defensive efficiency and 27th in pass-defense efficiency. UCF also won 17-14 when these teams met last season. A Cowboys offense that stalls in the red zone makes 10.5 points a lot to lay, and it points to the under 53.5.

Picks: Oklahoma State 31-21, UCF +10.5, U53.5

Wake Forest (-3.5) vs. NC State

Demon Deacons quarterback Gio Lopez (3) runs a keeper against the Stanford Cardinal | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 10, 12 p.m. ET, The CW

Wake Forest (4-1, 2-1 ACC) beat Stanford 57-3, the largest margin of victory in an ACC game in program history. Demon Deacons quarterback Gio Lopez threw for 265 yards, ran for 88 and accounted for five touchdowns before his day ended in the third quarter. Wake scored touchdowns on all seven red-zone trips and held Stanford to 2.9 yards per play.

The UNC transfer has 10 touchdown passes and one interception this season, and Wake also won 30-27 at then-No. 16 Louisville on Sept. 26.

“Unless my memory serves me wrong, someone was yelling ‘Wolfpack’ in our stadium last year, and we didn’t finish that game,” second-year Wake Forest coach Jake Dickert said after the Stanford win. NC State won that meeting 34-24.

NC State (3-2, 1-1) beat Louisville 31-28 behind a career-high 373 passing yards from Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey. Still, NC State lost 34-8 at Virginia and blew a 17-point lead in a 35-31 loss at Vanderbilt. Louisville also averaged 9.2 yards per rush in Raleigh.

Wake ranks 16th nationally in adjusted EPA per play, while NC State ranks 58th. The Wolfpack averages 36.8 points and 460 yards per game, so both offenses should keep moving, and that points to the over 59.5.

Picks: Wake Forest 33-28, Wake Forest -3.5, O59.5

MORE: College football prediction market picks, upset bets for Week 6

Texas (-7.5) vs. Oklahoma

Texas Longhorns running back Raleek Brown (0) and linebacker Rasheem Biles (3) greet fans after the game against the Tennessee Volunteers | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 10, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

No. 1 Texas (4-0) leads the SEC in scoring defense at 13.3 points per game and has 15 sacks under defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. The Longhorns held Tennessee to 70 rushing yards and 1.6 yards per carry in a 20-17 win in Knoxville on Sept. 26. Oklahoma hasn’t scored a touchdown in any of Texas’ last three Red River wins and totaled nine points in those games.

Oklahoma (2-2) lost 41-13 to No. 2 Georgia before its bye. The Sooners average 11.5 points per game against Power 4 opponents with quarterback John Mateer, and they rank last in the SEC in total offense. Oklahoma coach Brent Venables admitted his staff considered benching Mateer against Georgia.

Venables also called his offensive line “incredibly inconsistent and very disappointing” on Tuesday.

Texas has its own offensive questions. Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning has completed 63.5% of his passes for 862 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. However, Texas ranks 32nd in offensive efficiency, and Oklahoma ranks 92nd. Both defenses rank in the top four nationally, so a functional Texas offense should be enough to cover 7.5 points while the under 39.5 cashes.

Picks: Texas 27-10, Texas -7.5, U39.5

Duke (-6.5) vs. Georgia Tech

Duke Blue Devils running back Nate Sheppard (20) scores a touchdown on his run against the Stanford Cardinal | James Guillory-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 10, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Defending ACC champion Duke (4-0, 1-0 ACC) allows 11 points per game, the sixth-fewest in FBS, and comes off a bye. The Blue Devils won 31-27 at Illinois in Week 2, when quarterback Walker Eget threw for 206 yards and three touchdowns. Running back Nate Sheppard opened the season with 227 rushing yards against Tulane.

Duke hasn’t won in Atlanta since 2018, though.

“I think our leadership understands that we don’t have anybody in our building that’s ever beaten Georgia Tech,” Duke coach Manny Diaz said.

Georgia Tech (1-3) is still looking for its first win over an FBS team. The Yellow Jackets lost their opener at home to Colorado and fell 34-27 to Stanford in their ACC opener. Stanford has since lost 35-7 at Duke and 57-3 at Wake Forest. First-year starting quarterback Alberto Mendoza has six touchdown passes and three interceptions, and Georgia Tech coach Brent Key said every starting job was open during the bye.

Georgia Tech ranks 99th nationally in defensive efficiency, while Duke ranks 20th. The Blue Devils’ defense should keep Mendoza out of the end zone enough to cover 6.5, and that defense also points to the under 43.5.

Picks: Duke 24-17, Duke -6.5, U43.5

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UAB vs. Memphis (-14)

Memphis Tigers running back Jaylin Carter (6) looks on after a touchdown against Arkansas State | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 10, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Memphis (4-1, 1-0 American) beat Charlotte 59-8, outgaining the 49ers 674-209 and winning the turnover battle 4-0. Tigers quarterback Marcus Stokes, the reigning American Offensive Player of the Year, has nine touchdown passes and no interceptions over his last two starts. Running back Jaylin Carter has 571 rushing yards, and Memphis averages 6.1 yards per carry, which ranks eighth in FBS.

UAB took the Battle for the Bones trophy with a 31-24 upset of No. 22 Memphis last season as a three-touchdown underdog in UAB coach Alex Mortensen’s debut. First-year Memphis coach Charles Huff wants a home crowd to help take it back.

“We need 901, Grind City, Shelby County, Memphis to truly stand up this weekend to help us achieve the goal of winning the Battle of the Bones,” Huff said Tuesday.

UAB (3-2, 1-0) allows the second-fewest passing yards in the country at 118 per game, and defensive end Marlin Dean leads the American with five sacks. But the Blazers rank 125th in passing offense, and quarterback Ryder Burton averages 158 passing yards per game with four touchdowns and four interceptions.

Memphis is 14-2 in its last 16 games at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium and has the most 60-yard plays in the country. Its run defense ranks 111th, though, so a UAB ground game that ranks 49th and kicker Jonah Delange, who’s 12 of 13 on field goals, can help push this over 52.5.

Picks: Memphis 35-20, Memphis -14, O52.5

Air Force (-7.5) vs. Northern Illinois

Air Force Falcons defensive back Alexander Perez (26) and quarterback Liam Szarka (9) after the game against the Navy Midshipmen |: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 10, 7:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network

Air Force (3-1) beat Navy 14-9 to open the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy competition. Falcons quarterback Liam Szarka ran for both touchdowns, and Navy converted 1 of 11 third downs. The win snapped a five-game losing streak for Air Force in service academy games.

Air Force also won 36-33 in double overtime at Nevada and lost 38-32 to North Dakota State at home.

Northern Illinois (0-4) is still looking for its first win in its first Mountain West season. Rob Harley took over the program after former coach Thomas Hammock left in February. Arizona beat the Huskies 42-17 as Wildcats quarterback Noah Fifita threw for 325 yards and four touchdowns, and Northern Illinois has allowed 100-yard rushers in two of its four games.

Air Force ranks 27th nationally in adjusted EPA per play, while Northern Illinois ranks 101st. The Huskies also rank last in FBS in special teams efficiency. Two of Air Force’s four games have produced at least 69 points, and that supports the over 46.5 on homecoming weekend in DeKalb.

Picks: Air Force 28-20, Air Force -7.5, O46.5

MORE: CFB Week 6: Georgia vs Alabama could be postponed due to weather

James Madison (-7.5) vs. Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern Eagles quarterback Max Johnson (7) throws a pass against the Clemson Tigers | Butch Dill-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 10, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU

James Madison (5-0, 2-0 Sun Belt) beat Marshall 45-17 as running back George Pettaway ran for a career-high 206 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. Dukes quarterback Camden Coleman threw for 263 yards and three touchdowns. JMU, Indiana and Miami are the only teams in the country that rank in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.

JMU has won 10 straight Sun Belt regular-season games. But Georgia Southern is 6-0 against the Dukes in Statesboro, and first-year JMU coach Billy Napier knows the venue from a playing career that included a playoff semifinal win there.

“Statesboro is a difficult place to play,” Napier said.

Georgia Southern (2-3, 1-0) averaged a season-best 7.1 yards per play in a 31-24 win at Coastal Carolina last week. Georgia Southern coach Clay Helton is in his fifth season.

Special teams should decide the margin. JMU ranks first nationally in special teams efficiency, while Georgia Southern ranks 137th. Dukes receiver Michael Scott leads the country in combined return yards (534) and punt return touchdowns (2), and kicker Morgan Suarez has made 10 of 11 field goals. JMU averages 44.8 points per game, and the Eagles’ offense is coming off its best game, which points to the over 51.5.

Picks: James Madison 34-21, James Madison -7.5, O51.5

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