College Football Underdog Picks: Week 6 Plays for Austin Simmons, Noah Fifita, Evan Stewart & More

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Living in Florida limits some of the ways I can attack the college football betting landscape, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities out there. Underdog is one of the places where I can take advantage of my college football research through player projections, and that’s what I’ll be focusing on here.

Week 5 was an up-and-down week: we nailed the Missouri passing game, but bad weather impacted the Stanford game. Ashton Daniels was the main piece of FSU’s rushing attack, and Beau Pribula was horrible. The weather is going to be a major concern for several games this weekend, and I’m planning to avoid those spots entirely.

Instead, I’ll focus on games where weather won’t be a factor. There are plenty of high totals and appealing projections on this slate, so we shouldn’t have to force anything in games with questionable conditions.

For this slate, there are five numbers that stand out to me, with several that I’m comfortable pushing well beyond the current projection. So, here’s my college football Underdog picks for Week 6.

Texas A&M vs Missouri Pick

The only QBs Texas A&M has held under this number are KJ Jackson and Skyler Locklear. Sam Leavitt threw for 312 yards on 25 dropbacks, Kenny Minchey had 252 on 23 dropbacks, and Cutter Boley finished with 254 on 38 dropbacks.

Austin Simmons has been a better passer than every QB mentioned, and this number is simply too low. Against Power 4 competition, Simmons has thrown for at least 290 yards in every game, including 340 yards against Florida last week.

The common theme in the biggest passing performances against Texas A&M has been bigger WRs making plays downfield, and that’s exactly where Donovan Olugbode thrives.

Reed Harris had 189 yards, Jackson Harris had 163, and even Chris Marshall reached 76 yards in a game where KJ Jackson struggled. All three receivers are over 6’1″ and have legitimate size, much like Olugbode, who has been one of Simmons’ primary targets this season.

Picks: Missouri QB Austin Simmons Higher Than 243.5 Passing Yards | Missouri WR Donovan Olugbode Higher Than 70.5 Receiving Yards

Arizona vs West Virginia Pick

Noah Fifita has thrown at least 30 passes in every game this season, and West Virginia has been crushed through the air. Against FBS competition, West Virginia is allowing over 9.0 yards per dropback, the third-worst mark in the country.

Fifita may be without his top pass catchers, but the replacements are still capable, and I expect him to clear this number. If a receiving yards prop is released for Isaiah Mizell, I’d expect his line to be somewhere in the 60–65 yard range.

Arizona is blitzing at the highest rate in the country, and over the last two seasons, Jadan Bray has averaged over 4.00 yards per route run against the blitz. I know there isn’t a ton of passing volume in this offense, but with how frequently Arizona brings pressure, I think Bray should clear this number.

Pick: Arizona QB Noah Fifita Higher Than 273.5 Passing Yards + Arizona WR Jadan Bray Higher Than 24.5 Receiving Yards

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UCLA vs Oregon Pick

Dylan Raiola looked good coming off the bench against USC and now gets a UCLA defense that has allowed a lot of production to slot receivers. Evan Stewart has been Oregon‘s primary slot WR this season and sees plenty of quick, easy receptions.

He had a 30% target-per-route run rate in his one game with Raiola and has already recorded seven receptions against USC and eight against Boise State in Week 1. I think this is a great spot for Stewart to see plenty of targets and receptions.

Pick: Oregon WR Evan Stewart Higher Than 5.5 Receptions