College Football Playoff 12-Team Projections After Week 10

With Week 10 of the 2026 college football season in the books, it’s never too early to project how the 12-team playoff will look by December.

The projected field features a couple of changes following another big-time slate of games in Week 10. Georgia tightened its grip on the No. 1 seed after a dominant win at Ole Miss, while Miami slipped to No. 3 in seeding following a loss to Notre Dame. The victory by the Fighting Irish was huge for the program’s playoff hopes after ranking No. 11 in the selection committee’s first top 25 last Tuesday.

Utah is the clear favorite to win the Big 12 after its Holy War victory over BYU. The Cougars are the last projected at-large team in the playoff field as the No. 11 seed this week. Tennessee returned to the projected field after its win over Kentucky, while LSU’s postseason hopes took a massive hit after Alabama’s 31-13 victory in Baton Rouge.

Considering the unpredictable nature of the ’26 season, more surprises and shifts in the playoff field are coming this November. Some major question marks remain about the projected field, including Wake Forest’s hopes of giving the ACC two teams in the playoff or if the Big Ten has an additional program to join Indiana and UCLA in the projections.

Although the season is 10 weeks old, the impact of every game isn’t limited to just the top teams. Instead, each contest takes on an increased role due to eight additional spots in the playoff, as well as seeding, and the automatic bids for conference champions.

As a refresher: 12 teams — four champions from the power conferences, the highest-ranked Group of 6 team and seven highest-ranked at-large selections by the selection committee — will receive berths to the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame is also locked into the field if it finishes in the top 12 in the selection committee’s final rankings.

The top four highest-ranked teams receive a bye, with the first-round games slated to be played at the home sites of the higher seeds. Beginning with the quarterfinals, all games through the national championship will be played at bowl or neutral sites.

Related: College Football Bowl Projections for 2026 After Week 10

With Week 10 completed, Athlon Sports projects the CFP field for 2026:

College Football Playoff 12-Team Projections After Week 10

The Projected Field for 2026-27
Ranking All 138 College Football Teams for 2026

1. Georgia (Projected SEC Champion)
2. Utah (Projected Big 12 Champion)
3. Miami (Projected ACC Champion)
4. Indiana (Projected Big Ten Champion)
5. Alabama
6. Notre Dame
7. Texas
8. UCLA
9. Tennessee
10. Kentucky
11. BYU
12. Boise State (Projected Highest G6 Champion)

Bubble Watch After Week 10
Wake Forest (8-1)
Texas Tech (8-1)
USC (7-2)
Iowa (7-2)
LSU (6-3)
Ole Miss (6-3)
Missouri (6-3)
SMU (7-2)
Houston (7-2)
South Carolina (6-3)
Oklahoma State (6-3)
Arizona (7-2)
Oregon (6-3)

G6 Playoff Contenders
Projected Conference Champions: Boise State, Memphis, New Mexico, Liberty, Western Michigan, James Madison
Other G6 Teams in the Mix: North Dakota State, Oregon State, UTSA, North Texas, Army, Toledo, Ohio, Jacksonville State

College Football Playoff First Round

Games to be played on Dec. 18 and Dec. 19. Contests will be played at the home site of the higher-ranked team.

No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 BYU
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Kentucky
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 Tennessee

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Second-round games will be played at bowl sites and will take place on Dec. 30 and Jan. 1.

Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 30)
Projection: No. 2 Utah vs. No. 7 Texas

Peach Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 9 Tennessee

Rose Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Alabama

Cotton Bowl (Jan. 1)
Projection: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 6 Notre Dame

College Football Playoff Semifinals

Semifinal games will be played at bowl sites. Matchups are scheduled for Jan. 14-15.

Orange Bowl (Jan. 14)
Projection: No. 2 Utah vs. No. 3 Miami

Sugar Bowl (Jan. 15)
Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 5 Alabama

NationalChampionship

Jan. 25, 2027 in Las Vegas, Nev.
Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 3 Miami

Related: 2026 Bowl Projections After Week 10: Utah, Alabama and Notre Dame Make Playoff Statements

Related: College Football Rankings: Athlon Sports Top 25 (After Week 10)

Related: Drew Mestemaker Puts On a Show for NFL Scouts, Scores 6 TDs vs. Kansas State

This story was originally published by Athlon on Nov 9, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon as a Preferred Source by clicking here.