College Football Picks, Predictions: Week 7 Noon Best Bets for Saturday, October 17

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After a nice appetizer on Thursday and Friday, Saturday’s Week 7 college football slate is here.

We have six ranked-on-ranked matchups today, and it all starts with No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Indiana in a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship at noon ET on FOX.

In addition to Ohio State vs. Indiana, our staff came through with picks for Florida vs. Texas, Kansas vs. Kansas State and Ball State vs. Bowling Green.

With so much action to get to, let’s take a look at our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the noon games on Saturday, October 17.

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College Football Picks, Predictions

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday’s slate of noon games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Collin Wilson

The first handicap is how Indiana’s defense will handle the threat of Jeremiah Smith on every snap Ohio State plays.

Smith provided eight catches and explosives in the Big Ten Championship, but a collective effort in the second level kept the receiver from the end zone. The only touchdown from the Buckeyes was scored by Carnell Tate, who has since moved on to the NFL.

The biggest issue in OSU’s passing game is the lack of a second option for quarterback Julian Sayin. Devin McCuin ranks second in targets, but his 21 targets are dwarfed by Smith’s 66.

Expect Indiana to limit every player on the field not named Smith while minimizing assignment errors and missed tackles.

The game plan worked in last year’s Big Ten Championship, but with Smith involved in a heavier amount of motion, the Hoosiers have their work cut out for them in Week 7.

On the ground, Ohio State’s rushing attack may have issues getting jump-started against Indiana.

The Buckeyes utilize both inside and outside zone at a high Success Rate with Bo Jackson. The sophomore averages 3.9 yards after first contact, but Indiana has dominated inside zone this season.

Any success in the running game will come outside the tackle box with no expectation of explosives, as Indiana has allowed just two opponent rushing attempts to exceed 20 yards .

The path to success is much clearer for Indiana’s run game, as its secondary run concept of man-blocking assignments is a large weakness for Ohio State.

That leads to running back Turbo Richard, who has a near even split of zone-read and man-blocking rushing attempts. The Buckeyes rank 62nd in Rush EPA allowed, so Richard should be the driving force behind moving the chains to create methodical drives.

A grind of a game is expected, and Indiana should have the better rushing offense in the final box score.

The Hoosiers’ key is limiting explosives on defense and limiting breakaway scores for Smith. The biggest gap in the game is Ohio State’s limited receiving unit, as Sayin has been hesitant to target any option other than Smith.

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings call for Ohio State to be favored by -1.5, giving Indiana the edge in the current market.

Check out Wilson’s full Week 7 betting card below:

Pick: Indiana +3.5 · Under 51

By Stuckey

Bowling Green has started out 2-0 in league play, which may come as a surprise to some after how inept the team looked to start the season. However, I’m not buying the mini resurgence.

The Falcons benefited from facing Miami (OH) (in a game it won in the final seconds) with its third-string quarterback and then Sacramento State (the worst team in FBS) with its backup quarterback.

They also got a very friendly whistle in both victories, with the RedHawks and Hornets combining for 19 penalties for 188 yards (many drive-extending defensive flags) to just nine for 89 themselves.

This is still a horrendous BG offense with a D-II transfer quarterback who has a 2:8 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio playing behind a very vulnerable rebuilt offensive line with a lack of reliable weapons on the outside.

The Falcons do have some talent on the defense (although they did lose their best cornerback to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago), led by edge Myles Bradley, but they just don’t have the offensive personnel to consistently move the ball.

They also play at a very slow pace, which makes them unappetizing as a favorite of a touchdown-plus unless they’re playing Sacramento State.

Don’t get me wrong — Ball State is an atrocious ball club.

The Cardinals have started out 0-2 in league play with double-digit losses vs. Toledo and Kent State, but keep in mind they played the latter with a backup quarterback. It’s a much different offense with a healthy Keldric Luster under center.

Last week, as a five-touchdown underdog at ranked Northwestern, Ball State finished with 360 total yards of offense.

The defense has plenty of holes, but the run defense is decent enough to hold its own against the impotent Falcons, who want to establish the run under head coach Eddie George.

Keep in mind BG laid a similar price last week against Sacramento State’s backup quarterback (who didn’t even start at Idaho State last season), and I have Ball State power-rated four points better than the Hornets (at full strength) on a neutral field.

Plus, the Cardinals don’t have any major travel to worry about.

This looks like a prime opportunity to fade Bowling Green following three straight covers with the first coming in a superb situational spot, while the last two came against second- and third-string quarterbacks.

For what it’s worth, Bowling Green has been the least profitable home team in conference play since 2005. Over that span, the Falcons have gone just 28-53 ATS (34.6%), failing to cover by nearly five points per game on average.

Check out all of Stuckey’s Week 7 Situational Spots below:

Pick: Ball State +7.5 (Play to +6)

By Jordan Vanek

Every QB Florida has faced this season has thrown for at least 270 yards, including South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Auburn’s Byrum Brown, who are much worse passers than Arch Manning.

While Arch has struggled to take care of the football, he’s averaged 9.2 yards per attempt in SEC play, and that’s against two of the best defensive minds in college football in Brent Venables and Jim Knowles.

I think the path for Manning to clear 255.5 passing yards is through Cam Coleman.

On top of allowing a ton of passing yards, Florida has consistently struggled to contain opposing teams’ primary receiving options.

Missouri’s Cayden Lee and Donovan Olugbode both went over 90 yards; Auburn’s Chas Nimrod and Keshaun Singleton each cleared 90 yards; Ole Miss’ Deuce Alexander had 134 yards; and even South Carolina’s Nyck Harbor finished with 83 receiving yards.

Coleman is coming off a five-reception, 110-yard, one-touchdown performance against Oklahoma, and I think he’s in a great spot to continue that momentum.

Check out all of Vanek’s Week 7 Underdog plays below:

Pick: Arch Manning Higher Than 255.5 Passing Yards

By Bet Labs

Saturday’s Sunflower Showdown between Kansas and Kansas State fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.

This is a fade system targeting the home team. In both regular-season and postseason college football, home favorites in conference play who have performed poorly against the spread in recent games are often overvalued.

A string of ATS losses signals that market expectations have consistently outpaced on-field results, yet public perception and home-field bias can still inflate the line.

Conference opponents, familiar with schemes and tendencies, are well-positioned to exploit these weaknesses. This creates an environment where fading the struggling home favorite offers consistent value.

Kansas matches that description perfectly for this in-state clash.

This system boasts an all-time record of 329-246-11, good for a win percentage of 57.2% and an ROI of 10.8%. When isolated to 2026, it has gone 6-1, hitting at an incredible 86% clip with an ROI of 64%.

Pick: Kansas +4.5

Saturday’s college football slate is loaded with six top-25 matchups and much, much more. So, where do we even start?

Action Network senior writer tracked all of his bets for Saturday’s slate in the award-winning Action Network app, so be sure to download and get notified when our experts add new picks!