There was a strong belief that the Big 12 would come down to a three-horse race between BYU, Texas Tech and Utah. Despite the Brenden Sorsby saga, Texas Tech was still expected to be a factor in the final weeks of the regular season. The Cincinnati Bearcats just simplified that formula.

On the strength of a 21-0 second quarter, the Bearcats put this game almost out of reach early. This game would be defined by a concerted effort to establish the run by both teams. The Red Raiders would get a combined rushing total of 173 yards. Cole Tabb of Cincinnati would equal that 173 yard total by himself, averaging almost 11 yards per carry.

The pair of quarterbacks, Will Hammond (Texas Tech) and JC French IV (Cincinnati), would combine for less than 400 passing yards total. However, it was French IV who would lead with four passing touchdowns on Hammond’s lone touchdown pass. While Texas Tech attempted to throw the ball more, especially later, French IV and Cincinnati took advantage of the opportunities when they were there.

Texas Tech has regressed more than expected

Coming into this week, Utah was the third team of the big three at the top. BYU, Texas Tech and Utah, in that order. As of last week, the expectation was that Utah would need a strong performance in the Holy War to potentially jump ahead of Texas Tech. Based on the assumption that BYU, Texas Tech and Utah would be favorites in their games this week and next.

Texas Tech was already trending in the wrong direction but would likely have maintained a slight lead over Utah as long as they didn’t lose. Texas Tech handled business against the teams they should beat. Beating Abilene Christian by 21, Sam Houston State by 35, eventually Colorado by 22 (after a 7-3 deficit for most of the first half) and Arizona State by 28.

The vulnerability of the Red Raiders showed up when they played teams they were not likely to blow out but were expected to beat. They held off Oregon State, but not without revealing concerns against teams with big play potential. Quarterback Braden Atkinson is the nation’s leading passer. Wide Receiver Jesse Legree is the nation’s leading receiver. Against No. 22 Houston, Texas Tech narrowly escaped when Houston had a chance to extend the game but failed to make a two-point conversion late.

Through seven games, Texas Tech is a good team but not a scary team. They don’t have a single signature win on the level of the three they experienced last season against formidable, ranked opponents. The Sorsby saga likely took some wind out of their sails and losing several starters to the NFL was going to make this season somewhat difficult.

What does this mean for Utah?

There will be a shake-up at the top of the Big 12 standings after today. No. 2 BYU is in a close battle against UCF in the Bounce House. No. 25 Arizona hosts Iowa State later today. Leaving maybe the most important game in the conference, No. 14 Houston at No. 10 Utah. If these next games are won by the favorites, there will be a clear change at the top. If BYU goes onto beat UCF, Arizona beats Iowa State and Utah can beat Houston, the big three in the Big 12 will change.

That scenario would have BYU as the clear front-runner for the conference. However, Utah would move into the second spot, with Arizona jumping two spots over Texas Tech and Houston. Given that possible scenario, Utah would find themselves in a very advantageous situation. Every remaining game on Utah’s schedule, with one exception, should be very winnable. The one exception is the same game always circled on the calendar, The Holy War.

If both BYU and Utah beat the teams they are expected to beat, The Holy War becomes high noon for the Big 12 conference. If Utah were to beat BYU, even if BYU wins every other game, it should catapult Utah into the top spot prior to post-season play. Even if Utah plays that game close and ultimately does not win it, they would still be in a great position to make the Big 12 championship game.

Utah faces Houston tonight with a 10:15 p.m. ET kickoff and will broadcast on ESPN. As long as Utah wins over Houston, the Utes will control their Big 12 destiny.