Can Iowa Keep Momentum at Northwestern?

Well, that’s more like it.

One week after handing away the pig in Minneapolis, the Hawkeyes took out every ounce of frustration on #25 Wisconsin in a 30-0 shutout that kept the Heartland Trophy in Iowa City for a fifth straight year. The dominant performance also put Iowa back in the AP poll at #21 and the Coaches Poll at #20.

Hank Brown was surgical in his return to the lineup (20-of-24 for 222 yards and two scores. The performance was good enough to win Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week (when is the last time Iowa had their QB win that award?). He spread the ball around to 7 different receivers with DJ Vonnahme, Reece Vander Zee and Tony Diaz all topping 50 yards on the day. The defense allowed just 52 rushing yards and nine first downs and the one-week character check came back emphatic.

The reward is a genuinely fascinating road trip. Iowa heads to Evanston to take on Northwestern on Saturday night (6:30 pm CT on FOX) for its first look at the new Ryan Field. The roughly $870 million, 35,000-seat palace on the lakefront opened a month ago and bills itself as the most expensive college football stadium ever built. Despite the smaller size, it’s still a haven for visiting fans. Tickets for this weekend’s matchup are largely in line with the cost to buy season tickets to the Wildcats.

Both teams enter the week at 6-2 overall and 3-2 in Big Ten play. Both have been ranked in recent weeks, but it’s Iowa now moving up after the big win over the Badgers while Northwestern finds themselves just outside the top-25 this week after falling on the road ta Oregon last Saturday.

Despite the loss, FanDuel Sportsbook has Northwestern favored by 1.5 in this one with an over/under of 44.5 total points. So Iowa is a road dog to a team it has beaten four straight times, with an implied final somewhere around 23-21. The books are telling you this Northwestern team is different. And they may have a case.

A Different Northwestern

The David Braun rebuild is fully realized now. Four years after taking over as the interim HC, he’s won two bowls, banked a Big Ten Coach of the Year award, signed an extension through 2031 and built a 6-2 team whose only losses are one-score road games at Indiana and Oregon. There are no bad losses on the resume. There’s also a distinctly Iowa-flavored footnote: Braun cut his teeth on Northern Iowa’s staff before his NDSU years, so he knows exactly what kind of football is coming Saturday.

The biggest change this year is on offense, where Northwestern handed the play sheet to Chip Kelly. He inherited Michigan State transfer Aidan Chiles and has turned him into one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the conference. Chiles is completing 68.8% of his passes for 1,898 yards with 13 touchdowns and only single interception, plus 10 more scores on the ground.

Caleb Komolafe (618 yards) and Joseph Himon II (8.9 a carry) power a rushing attack ranked 24th nationally, and SDSU transfer Griffin Wilde (44-761-5) is a legitimate WR1. They convert 46.5% of their third downs. This is not the 12-points-a-game Northwestern of recent memory – it’s a top top-35 scoring offense (33.6 PPG) and a top-30 total offense (438.1 yards per game).

The flip side is a defense that will statistically be the worst Iowa has faced since the opener. The Wildcats rank 84th in total defense, 75th against the run, 94th against the pass and tied for 100th in sacks with 13 all season. Northwestern seems to have taken a page out of the Phil Parker book and is seemingly happy to give up yardage as long as they can hold opponents to FGs. While the Wildcats rank poorly on yards allowed, they remain top-25 in scoring defense, giving up 18.75 points per game thanks to the 16th best red zone defense (tied with Iowa). Northwestern is holding opponents to a FG or scoreless on 57% of their red zone trips.

The Matchup Stat to Watch

Turnover margin: Northwestern is +10, fifth in the country. Iowa is +1.

Everything about Iowa’s season (and frankly, the KF tenure) says that column decides the outcome Saturday. The Minneapolis loss featured four giveaways all by itself while the wins have been built on clean football and a defense that ranks 4th nationally in both points allowed (12.5) and rushing yards allowed (79.0). Chiles has thrown just one interception in eight games and Phil Parker’s unit has to be the one that finally makes him flinch. The pass rush is tied for 11th nationally with 24 sacks and is facing an offense that has barely turned it over all year, making this the chess match of the night.

On the other side, Iowa’s offense gets the most forgiving matchup it has seen since the trip to Seattle. An offensive line that has spent the season among the nation’s stingiest in sacks allowed faces a front with 13 all year. Xavier Williams and L.J. Phillips face the 75th-ranked run defense and the Hawkeyes will have to be able to run the ball. If Iowa’s 70th-ranked scoring offense can’t find the mid-20s against this group, it’s an answer about the offense, not the opponent.

Last week, more than 60% of the community thought we already had that question answered against Minnesota. The Wisconsin performance likely shifts the view, but falling flat again this week against a mediocre Northwestern team would seem to indicate Wisconsin was the anomaly, not Minnesota.

Here’s a quick look at the details for Saturday’s matchup.

Date: Saturday, November 7
Time: 6:30 pm CT
Matchup: #21 Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2, 3-2) at Northwestern Wildcats (6-2, 3-2)
Location: Ryan Field, Evanston, Illinois
TV: FOX
Initial Weather Forecast: Mostly cloudy, game-time temps in the upper 40s with light wind off the lake
FanDuel Opening Line: Northwestern -1.5 O/U 44.5

Series History

Iowa leads this series by nearly 30 games all-time, thanks in large part to a 21-game winning streak from 1974 to 1994. The Hawkeyes are trying to start another long streak, having won the last four and six of the last ten. The Wildcats are no longer a doormat, though, so expecting this streak to last too terribly long is a fool’s dream.

The two team’s didn’t face off last year and last saw each other in 2024 when the Hawkeyes won 40-14. The 2023 meeting came in Wrigley Field (Iowa won 10-7), so the Hawkeyes haven’t played in Evanston since the current streak started back in 2021 when Iowa won 17-12. Northwestern hasn’t beaten Iowa at home since 2017 and head coach Ryan Braun is 0-2 against Kirk Ferentz.

No trophy changes hands in this one, but the calendar supplies some unique history. Saturday is November 7, marking 17 years to the day since unranked Northwestern walked into Kinnick and stunned a 9-0 Iowa team that sat #4 in the BCS standings, 17-10, after Ricky Stanzi went down with an ankle injury Different era of Northwestern football, same lesson: this program has enjoys ruining great Iowa seasons.