Cal vs SMU Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Saturday, Oct. 24

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The Cal Golden Bears take on the SMU Mustangs in Dallas, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on The CW.

SMU is favored by -19.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1450. The total is set at 55.5 points.

Here’s my Cal vs. SMU prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24, 2026.

• Cal vs. SMU Pick: SMU Team Total Under 37.5 Points (Play to 35.5)

My SMU vs. Cal best bet is on the Mustangs to stay under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.

Cal vs SMU Odds

• Cal vs SMU point spread: SMU -19.5 (-110), Cal +19.5 (-110)
• Cal vs SMU over/under: 55.5 (-105o / -115u)
• Cal vs SMU moneyline: Cal +810, SMU -1450

California has an enormous problem on its hands. There are more than just rumblings that star quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele may have agreed to play for another football team next year while missing time in concussion protocol.

He was ruled out against Virginia Tech, but not against Wake Forest the following week.

Regardless, Cal started Colorado State transfer Jackson Brousseau, not entering Sagapolutele into the game until it was down 41-0 late in the third quarter.

By Monday, rumors that Sagapolutele may have agreed to go to Oregon (or another high-dollar suitor) next year broke containment.

Cal sprung the upset of Virginia Tech at home, but was clobbered by Wake, 41-7, the following week. Sagapolutele finished as the leading passer despite playing a quarter and a half. Now, Brousseau must hit the road and deal with Tosh Lupoi calling for a “QB competition the rest of the way.”

Not ideal.

Neither side of the ball is right for the Golden Bears. The running back room is banged up, as Adam Mohammed hasn’t played since Week 4 and won’t play again this week. However, Ashten Emory is available after leaving the Wake game with an injury.

Depth piece Carson Perry-Smith also on the injury report. Behind Emory are just two players available will have logged 7+ carries on the season, which is suboptimal for a team undergoing a change at QB.

Receiver Ian Strong also appears on Wednesday’s report.

SMU is off to a 5-1 start this season. That’s successful by most program standards, but it’s operated on a razor-thin margin.

It’s covered just once against an FBS foe and nudged out four wins by 10 or fewer points, including against Missouri State (126th in consensus power rating) and Boston College (16th among ACC teams).

SMU also avoided a total disaster against Florida State, winning 27-24 in a game where it turned the ball over four times.

Operating on the margins cost SMU three games last year, including its season finale against Cal, which kept it out of the ACC Championship.

Of SMU’s last 11 games, eight have been decided by 10 or fewer points.

The offense and defense have been near mirror opposites of each other. Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs’ offense thrive on late downs and big passing plays, but too many turnovers have been a real problem.

The defense is strong on a down-to-down basis, but it gives up way too many big plays and it doesn’t generate enough turnovers.

A team with a profile like that is bound to play in closely contested games decided by a single turnover or a couple big plays. The Mustangs have only allowed 13 touchdowns on the season against FBS opponents, but six of them have been 20-plus-yard explosive plays.

Maurice Crum Jr. was promoted to defensive coordinator after Scott Symons left for the NFL, and it’s clear Crum is making his mark.

Crum coached the linebackers before his promotion and SMU’s front is back to being terrific — just four teams have a higher sack rate than SMU (10.7% of dropbacks) led by DE Marques White‘s five and LB Brandon Booker‘s four.

Talk about core Sickos college football. West Coast Cal plays at Texas-grown SMU with an 11 a.m. local kick (9 a.m. internal time for Cal) in an Atlantic Coast Conference game.

Cal’s starting quarterback might have signed elsewhere midseason. The game is televised on The CW. What more could you possibly ask for?

Last season, Cal (+13.5) stunned SMU in Berkeley and spoiled its chance at playing in the ACC Championship game. I imagine Rhett Lashlee has this game circled as they now return back to Dallas for the rematch.

Given the circumstances, especially surrounding JKS, the market didn’t believe -16.5 was enough points to spot SMU at home; the number climbed to -19.5. The over/under opened at 54.5 and was bet down to as low as 52.5, before returning to 54.5 later in the week.

Cal’s actually done a nice job at forcing three-and-outs so far this year. It’s forced an opposing punt without a first down on nearly 24% of opposing drives (66th) while also showing a propensity to sustain drives on occasion, even under Brousseau. The trick is that Cal doesn’t finish those drives, failing to convert fourth downs three times last game.

With an early call time and SMU’s late-arriving crowd, this doesn’t feel like an environment primed for electricity Saturday morning.

SMU is far too prone to turnovers — even against mediocre defenses — to trust fully.

Instead, look for a comfortable win, but perhaps not one featuring an onslaught of points from SMU. This would be a new season-high mark against an FBS foe.

Pick: SMU Team Total Under 37.5 Points (Play to 35.5)