Bowl Projections and College Football Playoff Predictions Week 11

The first College Football Playoff rankings came out, and while there was the typical overreaction, they did provide a window into how the committee is thinking. But one key thing appears to be all but certain: there will be a three-loss SEC team in the CFP.
How does that affect the bowl projections? The trickle-down effect will happen with a bunch of really good SEC teams available after – this is our call – the Big Ten gets three teams in, and the Big 12 sends a second team. We start with our explanation of how the College Football Playoff will come together, with the final 1-12 seedings, and then come the bowl projections. (Scroll down or jump right to the bowl projections.)

Bowl Projections Quick Hits

• There’s a new wrinkle now to the bowl projections, and we’ll start to dive into this further next week. It’s been announced that 5-7 teams will be available now, based on matchup strength and geography, if there aren’t enough available teams with six wins.
• As always, we play it straight with how we think the bowl invites will go, but just assume that several big-name programs that don’t get into the CFP will opt out. That’s where the 5-7 teams will come in.
• When it comes to some of the hot College Football Playoff teams in the race, we’re projecting that Wake Forest will lose to SMU, and Kentucky will lose again, making them prime picks for the bowls.

College Football Playoff Projections

Here’s our explanation for the seedings.
1. Georgia gets through South Carolina, runs the table, and beats Tennessee in the SEC Championship.
2. It’s a bumpy ride for Indiana, but it finds its way into the Big Ten Championship, beats USC, and gets the No. 2 seed as the 12-1 Big Ten Champion.
3. Notre Dame doesn’t have any issues the rest of the way, but gets a bit of a scare against SMU, finishing 11-1 and in the No. 3 seed because it beat …
4. Last year, Miami finished ranked ahead of Notre Dame in the final CFP rankings. This year it’ll be one spot behind, but will still get into the top four seeds as the 12-1 ACC Champion.
5. Utah will lose to Arizona, but it will still get to the Big 12 Championship and beat Texas Tech (who we’re projecting out after losing on the road to either Oklahoma State or Baylor).
6.UCLA will get through the regular season 12-0, but will lose the Big Ten Championship.
7. Tennessee will win out and get to the SEC Championship, but it will lose to Georgia. Thanks to a 26-10 win, it’ll finish one spot ahead of …
8.Alabama will end up 10-2 and in with ease.
9. Here’s where it gets a bit funky. Texas will lose a tough battle at LSU, but wins over Ohio State, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Missouri are enough to earn this spot, even at 9-3.
10. Here’s the big call. It’ll be a bit of a debate between 10-3 BYU, who loses again to Utah, but in the Big 12 Championship, or 10-2 Arizona, who beat Utah but lost to BYU.
11. Iowa will be the only 10-2 team in the SEC or Big Ten left. It’ll roll through the rest of its schedule.
12. Boise State or New Mexico will end up here, with the Broncos getting the nod as a 12-1 Pac-12 champion whose only loss was in a good 34-27 fight at Oregon.

College Football Playoff First Round

Texas (9) at Alabama (8)
Friday, December 18, 2026
Game Time: 8:00, ESPN
Location: To Be Determined
Boise State (12) at Utah (5)
Saturday, December 19, 2026
Game Time: 12:00, ABC/ESPN
Location: To Be Determined
BYU (10) at Tennessee (7)
Saturday, December 19, 2026
Game Time: 3:30, TNT/truTV
Location: To Be Determined
Iowa (11) at UCLA (6)
Saturday, December 19, 2026
Game Time: 7:30, TNT/truTV
Location: To Be Determined

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

Utah (5) vs Miami (4)
Wednesday, December 30, 2026
Game Time: 7:30, TNT/truTV
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Alabama (8) vs Georgia (1)
Friday, January 1, 2027
Game Time: TBD
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

UCLA (6) vs Notre Dame (3)
Friday, January 1, 2027
Game Time: TBD
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential

Tennessee (7) vs Indiana (2)
Friday, January 1, 2027
Game Time: TBD
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA

College Football Playoff Semifinals

Capital One Orange Bowl

Tennessee (7) vs Notre Dame (3)
Thursday, January 14, 2027
Game Time: 7:30, TNT/truTV
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Miami (4) vs Georgia (1)
Friday, January 15, 2027
Game Time: 7:30, ABC/ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

College Football Playoff National Championship

Notre Dame (3) vs Georgia (1)
Monday, January 25, 2027
Game Time: 7:30, ABC
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

Week 11 Bowl Projections

Cricket Celebration Bowl

South Carolina State vs Alabama A&M
Saturday, December 12, 2026
Game Time: 12:00, ABC
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Last Season: South Carolina State 50, Prairie View A&M 38 4OT
Bowl Affiliations: MEAC, SWAC

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl

Middle Tennessee vs Central Michigan
Tuesday, December 15, 2026
Game Time: 5:30, ESPN
Location: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Last Season: Jacksonville State 17, Troy 13
Bowl Affiliations: CUSA, MAC, Sun Belt

Frisco Football Classic

Liberty vs Marshall
Tuesday, December 15, 2026
Game Time: 9:00, ESPN
Location: Ford Center at the Star, Frisco, TX
Last Season: No Game
Bowl Affiliations: CUSA, Sun Belt

TransPerfect San Juan Bowl

Pitt vs Appalachian State
Wednesday, December 16, 2026
Game Time: 7:30, ESPN
Location: Hiram Bithorn Stadium in San Juan, Puerto Rico
Last Season: No Game
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, Sun Belt

Boca Raton Bowl

Florida Atlantic vs Miami University
Friday, December 18, 2026
Game Time: 11:00 am, ESPN
Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Last Season: Louisville 27, Toledo 22
Bowl Affiliations: Group of 6

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

USF vs UAB
Friday, December 18, 2026
Game Time: 3:30, ESPN
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Last Season: NC State 31, Memphis 7
Bowl Affiliations: AAC, CUSA (ACC, SEC)

Myrtle Beach Bowl

East Carolina vs Georgia Southern
Monday, December 21, 2026
Game Time: 11:00 am, ESPN
Location: Brooks Stadium, Conway, SC
Last Season: Western Michigan 41, Kennesaw State 6
Bowl Affiliations: Group of 6

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Toledo vs North Dakota State
Monday, December 21, 2026
Game Time: 2:30, ESPN
Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Last Season: Washington State 34, Utah State 21
Bowl Affiliations: MAC, Mountain West

Puerto Rico Bowl

UMass vs Buffalo
Tuesday, December 22, 2026
Game Time: 1:30, ESPN
Location: Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium, Bayamón, Puerto Rico
Last Season: No Game
Bowl Affiliations: MAC, Group of 6 or Pac-12

StaffDNA Cure Bowl

FIU vs Louisiana
Tuesday, December 22, 2026
Game Time: 5:00, ESPN
Location: Exploria Stadium, Orlando, FL
Last Season: Old Dominion 24, USF 10
Bowl Affiliations: Group of 6

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

West Virginia vs Arizona State
Tuesday, December 22, 2026
Game Time: 8:30, ESPN
Location: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Last Season: Louisiana Tech 23, Coastal Carolina 14
Bowl Affiliations: Big 12, Former Pac-12

New Orleans Bowl

Jacksonville State vs James Madison
Wednesday, December 23, 2026
Game Time: 2:00, ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Last Season: Western Kentucky 27, Southern Miss 16
Bowl Affiliations: CUSA, Sun Belt

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Army vs UCF
Wednesday, December 23, 2026
Game Time: 5:30, ESPN
Location: Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Last Season: Texas State 41, Rice 10
Bowl Affiliations: AAC, CUSA, (or Big 12)

Poinsettia Bowl

Washington vs Fresno State
Wednesday, December 23, 2026
Game Time: 7:30, CW
Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
Last Season: No Game
Bowl Affiliations: Former Pac-12 Mountain West/New Pac-12

Frisco Bowl

Nebraska vs New Mexico
Wednesday, December 23, 2026
Game Time: 9:00, ESPN
Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
Last Season: Ohio 17, UNLV 10
Bowl Affiliations: Group of 6

Isleta New Mexico Bowl

UNLV vs Tulsa
Thursday, December 24, 2026
Game Time: 2:30, ESPN
Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Last Season: North Texas 49, San Diego State 47
Bowl Affiliations: Mountain West, CUSA or Sun Belt

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

Air Force vs Texas State
Thursday, December 24, 2026
Game Time: 7:00, ESPN
Location: Clarence TC Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
Last Season: Hawaii 35, Cal 31
Bowl Affiliations: Mountain West, CUSA (or AAC), New Pac-12

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

North Carolina vs Minnesota
Saturday, December 26, 2026
Game Time: 12:00, ABC
Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Last Season: Penn State 22, Clemson 10
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, Big Ten

Wasabi Fenway Bowl

Memphis vs Duke
Saturday, December 26, 2026
Game Time: 2:00, ESPN
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Last Season: Army 41, UConn 16
Bowl Affiliations: AAC, ACC

Duke’s Mayo Bowl

Virginia Tech vs Illinois
Saturday, December 26, 2026
Game Time: 3:30, ABC
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Last Season: Wake Forest 43, Mississippi State 29
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, Big Ten (or SEC)

68 Ventures Bowl

Ohio vs Louisiana Tech
Saturday, December 26, 2026
Game Time: 5:30, ESPN
Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL
Last Season: Delaware 20, Louisiana 13
Bowl Affiliations: CUSA, MAC, Sun Belt

Cactus Bowl

Northwestern vs Cincinnati
Saturday, December 26, 2026
Game Time: 7:30, ABC
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Last Season: Minnesota 20, New Mexico 17 OT
Bowl Affiliations: Big Ten, Big 12

Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl

UTSA vs Virginia
Monday, December 28, 2026
Game Time: 2:00, ESPN
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Last Season: East Carolina 23, Pitt 17
Bowl Affiliations: AAC, ACC

Holiday Bowl

Louisville vs USC
Monday, December 28, 2026
Game Time: 5:00, CW
Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
Last Season: SMU 24, Arizona 19
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, Former Pac-12

JLab Birmingham Bowl

Tulane vs Auburn
Tuesday, December 29, 2026
Game Time: 2:00, ESPN
Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
Last Season: Georgia Southern 29, App State 10
Bowl Affiliations: AAC, SEC

Pop-Tarts Bowl

SMU vs Houston
Tuesday, December 29, 2026
Game Time: 5:30, ABC
Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Last Season: BYU 25, Georgia Tech 21
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, Big 12

Valero Alamo Bowl

Oregon vs Texas Tech
Tuesday, December 29, 2026
Game Time: 9:00, ESPN
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Last Season: TCU 30, USC 27 OT
Bowl Affiliations: Former Pac-12, Big 12

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

Wake Forest vs Florida
Wednesday, December 30, 2026
Game Time: 11:30 am, ESPN
Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Last Season: Virginia 13, Missouri 7
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, SEC

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl

Michigan vs Kentucky
Wednesday, December 30, 2026
Game Time: 3:00, ESPN
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Last Season: Illinois 30, Tennessee 28
Bowl Affiliations: Big Ten, SEC

ReliaQuest Bowl

Wisconsin vs Ole Miss
Thursday, December 31, 2026
Game Time: 12:00, ESPN
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Last Season: Iowa 34, Vanderbilt 27
Bowl Affiliations: Big Ten, SEC

Old El Paso Sun Bowl

Clemson vs Oregon State
Thursday, December 31, 2026
Game Time: 2:00, CBS
Location: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
Last Season: Duke 42, Arizona State 39
Bowl Affiliations: ACC, Former Pac-12

Las Vegas Bowl

Oklahoma vs Arizona
Thursday, December 31, 2026
Game Time: 3:45, ESPN
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Last Season: Utah 44, Nebraska 22
Bowl Affiliations: SEC, Former Pac-12

Kinder’s Texas Bowl

Baylor vs Missouri
Thursday, December 31, 2026
Game Time: 7:30, ESPN
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Last Season: Houston 38, LSU 35
Bowl Affiliations: Big 12, SEC

Citrus Bowl

Ohio State vs LSU
Saturday, January 2, 2027
Game Time: 12:00, ABC
Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Last Season: Texas 41, Michigan 27
Bowl Affiliations: Big Ten, SEC

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

North Texas vs Penn State
Saturday, January 2, 2027
Game Time: 3:30, ESPN
Location: Gerald R Ford Stadium, University Park, TX
Last Season: UTSA 57, FIU 20
Bowl Affiliations: Group of 6 (or ACC)

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl presented by Gin & Juice by Dre and Snoop

Western Michigan vs Wyoming
Saturday, January 2, 2027
Game Time: 5:30, CW
Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Last Season: Fresno State 18, Miami University 3
Bowl Affiliations: MAC, Mountain West

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Oklahoma State vs South Carolina
Saturday, January 2, 2027
Game Time: 7:30, ESPN
Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Last Season: Navy 35, Cincinnati 13
Bowl Affiliations: Big 12, SEC, (or AAC)