Arizona vs. Texas Tech prediction: One fatal flaw that could decide everything

A critical Big 12 matchup tees off in this weekend’s college football action as Arizona and Texas Tech meet in a matchup of AP top 25 ranked rivals.

Both have one loss and sit in a tie for second place in the competitive Big 12 standings. Texas Tech just took a surprise loss at Cincinnati and Arizona is on an impressive five-game win streak.

Whoever loses this one could see their College Football Playoff ambitions vanish into thin air. Who has the ultimate advantage?

How Arizona can win

Arizona has the passing-game firepower to make this a competitive matchup, but the Wildcats need to turn that strength into sustained offensive production.

Noah Fifita leads an offense averaging 310.9 passing yards per game, ninth-best nationally. And this offense is third in FBS converting almost 55 percent of its third downs.

Texas Tech is third-worst in the Big 12 against the pass and second-worst with 16 touchdowns allowed. Those numbers suggest the Wildcats can move the chains against this defense.

The key remains protecting Fifita, establishing a running game to keep the Tech defense honest, and critically avoiding turnovers.

Defensively, Arizona also needs to continue its recent success against the run. It held Iowa State to just 52 rushing yards in a 39-3 victory last week.

Controlling the ground game forces the Red Raiders to throw the ball, something they’re not doing all that consistently.

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How Texas Tech can win

Balancing out this offense is crucial for the Red Raiders. Surprisingly, they rank in the bad half of the Big 12 in total offensive and defensive efficiency. The good news is they can run the ball moderately well, averaging 190 yards per game and 5 yards per carry.

Running effectively helps Texas Tech control the tempo, keep Noah Fifita and Arizona’s potent passing attack on the sideline, and create more manageable situations for quarterback Will Hammond.

Texas Tech needs to consider giving backup quarterback Tommy Castellanos more opportunities. Hammond has struggled – 6 TDs, 6 INTs – while the guy behind him on the depth chart introduces a kind of mobility that is harder to defend.

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The key matchup

The one potential fatal flaw Texas Tech could expose this weekend is Arizona’s vulnerability to interior pass pressure. That’s an area where the Red Raiders’ pass rush is still pretty good.

Arizona has allowed 17 sacks this season, ranking third-worst in the Big 12. Tech’s interior pass rush could force Fifita to move off his spot and make decisions before his receivers finish their routes.

If Texas Tech generates pressure without blitzing heavily, it can keep extra defenders in coverage and make Arizona work much harder for completions.

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Who wins, and why?

Arizona is averaging 311 passing yards per game, while the Red Raiders are allowing 266. That’s a significant opportunity for Fifita to expose a defense that showed real structural vulnerability in the loss to Cincinnati.

The Wildcats also have better defensive numbers, allowing just 16 points per game. The Red Raiders can run the ball well at home, but Arizona’s passing efficiency and defensive consistency give it a path to a very real upset.

The Big Lead prediction: Arizona 30, Texas Tech 27

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