2026 Week 9 Preview: Florida Atlantic Owls @ North Texas Mean Green

Game notes

• Time and date: Thursday, October 29 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Network: ESPN
• Location: DATCU Stadium — Denton, TX
• Spread: North Texas (-13.5)
• Over/under: 77.5
• All-time series: Florida Atlantic leads, 8-7
• Last meeting: North Texas 41, Florida Atlantic 37 — October 12, 2024
• Current streak: North Texas, 3 (2018-24)

Setting the scene

There’s something about Thursday nights in the American Conference. The American has played a Thursday primetime matchup in four consecutive weeks. Three of those games were decided in overtime, while the other had a lead change in the final 15 seconds.

This week’s American matchup should only continue playing into that Thursday night chaos. North Texas and Florida Atlantic are two of the most dynamic offenses in the country. Both rank top 10 nationally in passing and top 20 in scoring. Additionally, both defenses rank in the bottom 25 in points allowed per game.

That sets the scene for the ultimate offensive fireworks show in Denton. The over/under is set at 77.5, which is by far the highest total of the season. There are game-changing stars everywhere across both offenses, and both teams’ offensive success has translated to team success. The Mean Green and Owls enter with identical 5-2 records, remaining in the thick of contention for the American Conference Championship Game.

Florida Atlantic Owls outlook

Florida Atlantic (5-2, 2-1 American) is one win away from its winningest season since 2019. Zach Kittley has propelled the Owls to new heights this decade in his second year at the helm. The longtime successful offensive coordinator has done so by producing the nation’s 17th-ranked scoring offense (37.3 points per game) and 8th-ranked passing offense (312 yards per game).

While there is still more to be desired on defense, FAU can simply outscore opponents. This was evident last Saturday against Rice, when Kittley’s team emerged in a 51-49 shootout. It was the team’s third game scoring at least 45 points this year, and that victory required 461 yards of offense.

The Owls run an air raid offense, relying heavily on quarterback Caden Veltkamp to run the show. The third-year FBS starter’s vast experience has shown on the stat sheet, and he ranks fifth nationally in passing yards per game (298), while dealing 18 touchdowns against four interceptions — his greatest improvement from 2025. Veltkamp has attempted at least 37 passes in five of seven starts this year, and he’s maintained efficiency with high volume. His 73.1 completion percentage is fourth among all quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts.

There is no Veltkamp without Easton Messer. The quarterback-wide receiver combination was first formed in 2022 at Western Kentucky, and the two have a telepathic connection which is evident on gamedays. Messer, who finished third in the country in receptions a year ago, is currently second in the category, and he is one of nine FBS receivers averaging over 100 yards per game. Messer has recorded 26 receptions in the past two weeks, and he’s fresh off a 162-yard showing. Against Rice, the star receiver demonstrated the extent of his versatiliy, scoring two receiving touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, and one as a punt returner (his second punt return touchdown of the season).

Veltkamp to Messer is the defining connection of FAU’s offense, but there are other weapons North Texas must be aware of. Kelby Valsin is fifth nationally in receptions and 10th in receiving yards per game, nearly matching Messer’s production. Dom Henry has been a reliable third option, contributing 28 receptions for 319 yards.

This air raid offense is actually 64th in rushing attempts per game, but the Owls haven’t been as successful on the ground, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. Ethan Ervin and Leonard Farrow (who has two kick return touchdowns this year) split the carries for a run game that checks in at 117th nationally.

But the Owls’ Achilles heel is the run defense. Rice produced 499 rushing yards and six touchdowns against FAU, while Army generated 479 and eight. North Texas isn’t an option attack, but the Mean Green still can be a dangerous counter to a run defense which ranks second-to-last in the FBS with 258 yards allowed per game on a 6.2 average. The passing defense has been considerably better, and FAU has six interceptions on the season. Key defenders include defensive tackle CJ Doggette (17 tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss) and the linebacker tandem of Joseph Sipp Jr. and Leon Hart, who combine for 83 stops.

North Texas Mean Green outlook

North Texas (5-2, 3-0 American) is one of two remaining undefeated teams in American play, sharing the designation with UTSA. The Mean Green have pieced together one of the most impressive reloads in college football this season under first-year head coach Neal Brown. They were one of two programs, along with Iowa State, to return zero starters from 2025, as many followed former head coach Eric Morris to Oklahoma State.

The nation’s No. 1 passer Drew Mestemaker, No. 5 rusher Caleb Hawkins, and No. 3 receiver Wyatt Young were among those who made the offseason trek to Stillwater. Despite the Mean Green losing a bulk of talent from the nation’s No. 1 offense, they remain just as lethal on that side of the ball with a new crop of talent. North Texas ranks second in scoring (43.1 points per game) and fourth in total offense (526 yards per game), and a new big three has emerged on offense.

In terms of yards per game, North Texas now fields the nation’s No. 3 passer Tayven Jackson, No. 6 rusher Jahiem White, and No. 14 receiver Justin Stevenson. These three Big 12 transfers headline an offense that has scored 44 points or greater in all five wins. Jackson has eclipsed 300 yards in every American matchup, firing 12 passing touchdowns across those three games. White has been among the most explosive rushers in the country, and his 7.4 yards per carry rank second in the FBS among ball carriers with at least 70 attempts. When White surpasses 100 yards, North Texas is 5-0, and he has managed a touchdown in all seven games.

Stevenson has emerged as a star more recently. His 209 yards against Navy were a career-high, and he has scored multiple touchdowns in three consecutive games. Stevenson’s rise has coincided with the injury of Corri Milliner, who will remain out for a third consecutive game. Other options in the receiving game include tight end Max Reese and receivers Kyle Koch and Barton Tipton. Additionally, White plays a pivotal role as a receiver. The star running back ranks second on the team with 27 receptions and third with 250 receiving yards.

North Texas’ defense oscillates in performance each game. In games one, three, five, and seven, the Mean Green surrendered at least 39 points each time. But in games two, four, and six, they held each of their opponents to 14 points or fewer. The result is a 116th-ranked scoring defense and 92nd-ranked total defense that has mainly struggled against the run game. North Texas has been stout at defending third downs, but there have been deficiencies near the goal line, as only 10 teams allow a higher percentage of red zone touchdowns than the Mean Green.

The Mean Green defense contributed to its 49 points last week against Navy, as inside linebacker Zakye Barker recovered a fumble for a touchdown. Barker is the leading tackler with 57 stops. Another wreaker of havoc on the unit is defensive end Davion Rhodes, who leads the team with 4.0 sacks and four forced fumbles.

Additionally, North Texas received a special teams contribution last week as Dalton Carnes returned a punt 76 yards for a touchdown. The teams in this matchup now combine for five special teams return touchdowns on the year.

Prediction

Yes, points are going to be scored, and they will be scored often. These two teams were built for this matchup. There will be a barrage of explosive touchdowns, as Tayven Jackson and Caden Veltkamp trade haymakers through the air from start to finish.

Thursday night homefield advantage will certainly favor North Texas, but two other factors can contribute to a Mean Green triumph. One, North Texas features the more versatile ground attack, rostering one of the top running backs in the country in Jahiem White. Two, the Mean Green are much sharper defensively, as Florida Atlantic continues to struggle allowing explosives in the run game.

With those factors favoring the Mean Green, Neal Brown’s team attains bowl eligibility and remains perfect in American Conference play Thursday night.

Prediction: North Texas 56, Florida Atlantic 38