2026 Bowl Projections After Week Five

Hello everyone and welcome back to our weekly picks of who’s in the playoffs and the bowl games. A huge thank you to everyone who has followed along this year. Last weekend was a “Separation Saturday” for a few teams. Ohio State got a huge win as the battle with Indiana looms next weekend. In the SEC, Alabama made a statement in beating Mississippi State. Elsewhere, Missouri blew out Florida, making the Gators a “one and done” in our playoff picks. Who’s in and who’s out? Let’s get to the reason why your here with our 2026 Bowl Projections After Week Five. As always, if you’d like to see how things changed from last week please click here.

2026 Bowl Projections After Week Five

How The Process Works

Once again this year, we have a 12-team playoff with the top four still getting a first-round bye. However, the winners of the Power Four conferences don’t automatically get slots 1-4. In addition, the highest-ranked Group of Five team receives a bid. That leaves seven at-large teams. Once again, seeds 5-8 host first-round games on campus. The New Year’s Six bowls are introduced for the next round and the semifinals. Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas hosts the title game on January 25th. With the formalities out of the way, let’s get to our 2026 bowl projections after week five.

College Football Playoff First Round

Friday, December 18th- Oxford, Mississippi- (9) BYU at (8) Ole Miss– Following a bye week, the Rebels host Vanderbilt this Saturday. The Cougars drop one spot this week and no longer host a first-round game.

Saturday, December 19th- Bloomington, Indiana- (11) Texas Tech at (6) Indiana– The Hoosiers took care of Rutgers and travel to Nebraska in a battle of unbeatens on Saturday. Tech has a really good shot at finishing the regular season 12-0.

Saturday, December 19th- Tuscaloosa, Alabama- (10) LSU at (7) Alabama– The Tigers are back in our rankings after Florida’s loss. They’ve got a tough one on Saturday night at Kentucky. Behind a huge day from Keelon Russell, the Crimson Tide got a huge win over Mississippi State. They host Georgia in the weekend’s biggest game.

Saturday, December 19th- Columbus, Ohio- (12) Boise St at (5) Ohio State– James Madison and North Dakota State are hot on their heels, but the Broncos remain our Group of Six squad. The Buckeyes made a statement in their win over Iowa.

Playoff Quarterfinals

Wednesday, December 30th- VRBO Fiesta Bowl- (6) Indiana vs. (3) Georgia- Another week and another blowout for the Bulldogs. This time it was a 38-14 win over Vanderbilt. These two schools have never met.

Friday, January 1st- Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl- (8) Ole Miss vs. (1) Miami– We’re picking a rematch of last year’s epic Fiesta Bowl one round earlier. Darian Mensah didn’t have the best numbers this past Saturday. However, it was more than enough to lead the Hurricanes past Clemson.

Friday, January 1st- Rose Bowl Presented By Prudential- (5) Ohio State vs. (4) Notre Dame- How’s this for a Rose Bowl game? We are projecting the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten and face the Irish in Pasadena.

Friday, January 1st- Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic- (7) Alabama vs. (2) Texas– Unless it happens in the SEC title game, these two don’t play each other in the regular season. Arch Manning and the Longhorns play Oklahoma in the “Red River Rivalry” on Saturday.

That’s a lot to digest, but there’s still plenty more to come as we roll on with our 2026 bowl projections after week five.

College Football Playoff Semi-Finals And Finals

Thursday, January 14th- Capital One Orange Bowl- (4) Notre Dame vs. (1) Miami– We are picking the Irish to get past Ohio State and face the Hurricanes.

Friday, January 15th- Allstate Sugar Bowl- (3) Georgia vs. (2) Texas– The Bulldogs take care of Indiana to set up a semifinal showdown with the Longhorns.

Monday, January 25th- College Football National Championship- (2) Texas vs. (1) Miami–We’re on an island with us having these two as the top teams. Until someone beats them, it’s going to stay that way.

Those who like to complain about SEC bias may not like our picks this week. But that’s how we see things right now. Let’s get to the rest of the bowl games with our 2026 bowl projections after week five.

Games Around The New Year

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: January 2nd- Big Ten vs. SEC- Iowa vs. Florida- As we mentioned earlier, the Gators’ shocking loss to Missouri knocked them out of the playoff and playing in Orlando. On the other side of the ball, the Hawkeyes stay in this slot despite the Ohio State loss.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl- January 2nd- Big 12 vs. SEC- Auburn vs. West Virginia

ServPro First Responder Bowl- January 2nd- AAC/ACC-Big 12- Tulsa vs. Arizona State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl- December 30th- ACC vs. SEC- Virginia Tech vs. Missouri

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl: December 30th- Big Ten vs. SEC- Michigan vs. Kentucky- The Wildcats rallied for the biggest road comeback in school history in a win over South Carolina. Kentucky has played in more Music City Bowls than anyone, and this would be their seventh trip. These two schools have met once, with the Wolverines winning 62-0 way back in 1908.

Reliaquest Bowl: December 31st- SEC vs. Big Ten- Tennessee vs. Nebraska

Old El Paso Sun Bowl: December 31st- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12- Wake Forest vs. Arizona*- The Wildcats go to Texas as a legacy Pac-12 squad while the Demon Deacons are coming off a huge win over Stanford.

Las Vegas Bowl: December 31st- SEC vs. Pac-12- Oklahoma vs. USC*- The Trojans go to Vegas as a legacy Pac-12 squad.

Kinder’s Texas Bowl- December 31st- SEC vs. Big 12- Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma State

That’s our first group of picks. As we move along with our 2026 bowl projections after week five, let’s move to the contests after the big holiday.

Post-Christmas Games

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: December 26th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten- Clemson vs. Penn State

Wasabi Fenway Bowl: December 27th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. American- Louisville vs. Tulane

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: December 26th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten- Duke vs. Wisconsin

68 Ventures Bowl: December 26th- Conference USA/Mid-American/Sun Belt- Delaware vs. Louisiana Tech

Cactus Bowl – December 26th: Big Ten vs. Big 12 – Northwestern vs. Kansas State

Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl: December 28th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. American- Virginia vs. North Texas

Trust & Will Holiday Bowl- ACC vs. Pac-12- Pittsburgh vs. Utah*- The Utes are a team to watch out for going forward for a playoff bid. For now, they go to San Diego as a legacy Pac-12 squad. It was a good-news/bad-news weekend for the Panthers. On the positive side, they beat Virginia Tech on the road to go 5-0. Unfortunately, they lost quarterback Mason Heintschel to a torn ACL.

JLab Birmingham Bowl: December 29th- American/ACC/SEC- North Carolina State vs. Minnesota+- The Golden Gophers go to Birmingham as we don’t have an SEC squad with five in the playoff.

Pop-Tarts Bowl: December 29th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big 12- SMU vs. Cincinnati

Valero Alamo Bowl: December 29th- Big 12 vs. Pac-12- Houston vs. Oregon*– The Ducks remain just outside our top 12 and go to San Antonio as a legacy Pac-12 squad.

We are moving right along with our 2026 bowl projections after week five. Time now for the opening contests of bowl season.

First Week Games

Cricket Celebration Bowl- December 12th- MEAC vs. SWAC- South Carolina State vs. Alabama State

IS4S Salute To Veterans Bowl: December 15th- Conference USA/MAC/Sun Belt- Appalachian State vs. Massachusetts

Frisco Football Classic- December 15th- Conference USA vs. Sun Belt- Louisiana vs. Kennesaw State

Boca Raton Bowl: December 18th- American/Conference USA/MAC/Mountain West/Sun Belt- Liberty vs. Marshall

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: December 19th- American/ACC/Notre Dame/SEC- Memphis vs. Florida State- Again, we’ve run out of SEC teams, so that opens up a trip for Mike Norvell’s Seminoles to face his former squad.

As we wrap up our 2026 bowl projections after week five, let’s move to the games before the big holiday. One thing you’ll notice is that there are a lot more games before Christmas this year.

Bowls Right Before Christmas

Myrtle Beach Bowl: December 21st- Conference USA/MAC/Sun Belt- Arkansas State vs. Central Michigan

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: December 21st- Mountain West vs. MAC- Air Force vs. Toledo

Puerto Rico Bowl- December 22nd- MAC vs. American/CUSA/MWC/SBC- Miami (Ohio) vs. East Carolina

StaffDNA Cure Bowl- December 22nd- AAC/CUSA/MAC/SBC- South Florida vs. UConn

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl- December 22nd- Big 12 vs. Conference USA/Pac 12- Central Florida vs. Washington+- The Huskies go to Shreveport as a legacy Pac-12 school.

New Orleans Bowl: December 23rd- Conference USA vs. Sun Belt– Jacksonville State vs. James Madison

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl- December 23rd- Big 12 vs. AAC/MWC/SBC- Baylor vs. Army

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: December 23rd- AAC/CUSA/MAC/MWC/SBC- Texas San-Antonio vs. Oregon State

SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl- Pac-12 vs. Mountain West- San Diego State vs. UCLA +- We have an old Pac-12 school filling the void with no Mountain West team available.

Isleta New Mexico Bowl- December 24th- MWC vs. AAC/CUSA/MAC/SBC- UNLV vs. Florida International

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl: December 24th- American vs. Mountain West- North Dakota State vs. Colorado State- At this point, it’s highly unlikely that Hawaii makes a bowl games. As a result, we’re sending the Bison the the island paradise.

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl: Date TBA- MAC vs. MWC- New Mexico vs. Buffalo

Thanks for checking out our 2026 bowl projections after week five here at Last Word On College Football.

Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

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