10 Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 6

Every pick I miss is a referendum on my life and the choices I’ve made to suffer such a lowly state of despair.
And then there’s the Florida freaking Gators unnecessarily connecting on an otherwise meaningless touchdown pass against Missouri to get the total past 57.5. Now the sky is a little bluer, the air a tad crisper, and the wifi a wee bit faster.
It’s been a grind, but things finally started to clear up a bit with a 7-3 week. So what do I do after the squirrel finds a few nuts? I go totally dingy this week, and there’s a huge reason – Hurricane Isaias.
First, PLEASE BE SAFE, everyone. These things are no joke. Second, forgive taking a natural disaster and applying it to football picks. And finally, this is your warning: it almost never works when I go cutie-pie and make picks because of outside factors like the weather over straight Team A over Team B analysis.
So, in what should be one of the weirdest weeks yet … let’s have some fun.
Results So Far: 36-29
– Week 6 Schedule & Predictions
– CFN Week 6 Expert Picks

10. South Carolina at Florida

Line: Point Total 59.5
ATS Pick: Under
– Game Preview and Prediction
This might change depending on the weather on game day, but at the moment, the forecast for Gainesville on Saturday afternoon calls for around 85 degrees and about a 50% chance of rain. However, unlike Georgia at Alabama – we’ll get there in a moment – wind probably won’t be a factor.
Here’s the other factor – South Carolina, for all of its problems, is terrific against the run, and we all saw what happened last week at Mizzou when the Gator ground game struggled. Again, though, this is all about the forecast. If it turns out to be a dry track, this all turns around fast and goes back up to the 61.5 it was at earlier in the week.

9. Florida State at Louisville

Line: Point Total 59.5
ATS Pick: Over
– Game Preview and Prediction
Friday night games are weird. The teams are thrown off; they don’t play like they’re supposed to, and whatever you think is going to happen won’t.
That’s why I’m not going with Louisville -3.5 – which I love. Point totals are a tad different. The last two Louisville games have been slightly under 59 points, and every Florida State game other than the 50-36 loss to Alabama has been way under. Whatever.
Louisville has allowed 30 points or more in each of its four games against FBS teams.
(Okay, I feel bad if you’re here for Against the Spread picks only, and this is way too point-total-heavy this week – and yes, some people yell at me about this. So here are five picks I really like, but didn’t include: Louisville -3.5 over Florida State, BYU -10.5 over Iowa State, NC State +3.5 over Wake Forest, Air Force -7.5 over Northern Illinois, Arizona State -20.5 over Hawaii)

8. Iowa at Washington

Line: Point Total 41.5
ATS Pick: Under
– Game Preview and Prediction
Again, it’s a Friday night game, so not everything goes to plan. However, I’m playing this totally straight.
If Washington struggled to score against USC – who you, your mom, and nine friends could hang 30 on – put up 16 against Utah State, 24 against Washington State, and 24 in a loss to Minnesota, why is it all of a sudden going to be some offensive juggernaut against Iowa?
Iowa has yet to score more than 20 points against any Power Four team, and when it did score against Northern Illinois, the final score was 40-0. (And, if you’ve been with me for a while, you know how this goes … you’re never wrong assuming an Iowa game will go under.)

7. Indiana at Nebraska

Line: Indiana -7.5
ATS Pick: Indiana
– Game Preview and Prediction
As a man of a certain age, I want Nebraska to be great at college football again. I need Nebraska to be great at college football again.
But sort of like my Alabama pick over Mississippi State last week (assuming the Tide was about to have another day at the SEC regular season office against a team whose entire world revolved around a home win), I can’t get there yet with the Huskers.
Beating Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota, Michigan State, and Maryland … ehhhhhhh. Curt Cignetti is still coaching the defending national champs.

6. & 5. Texas vs. Oklahoma

Line: Point Total 39.5, Line: Texas -7.5
ATS Pick: Over, Texas
– Game Preview and Prediction
I am well aware the Red River Rivalry is about as throw-out-the-record-books funky as these big games get, so I’m diving in with one big belief: if something weird is going to happen, it’s going to be that these two score.
The last two RRRs were defensive dominations by Texas, winning 23-6 last year and 34-3 in 2024.
Gut feeling – the Sooner offense will throw everything at the wall in a desperate attempt to turn its season around. In an I-can’t-change-the-future-I-can-only-see-it sort of way, OU will go on a crisp scoring drive on its first possession. And here’s the other part of this that’s a real possibility. Texas might do all of the heavy lifting by itself.
Remember, Michigan is awful offensively, and New Mexico and UTEP are New Mexico and UTEP. Those are the three teams the Sooners shut down.

4. Charlotte at North Texas

Line: Point Total 57.5
ATS Pick: Over
The weather will be perfectly fine at 2:30 CT in Denton, Texas on Saturday afternoon. But that’s not why you called.
The total points in each of the five North Texas games this season: Indiana 68, UNLV 50 (the Rebels didn’t show up and turned it over four times), Texas State 84, Houston Christian 77, Tulsa 89.
Charlotte just lost to Memphis 59-8. The concern here is that the 49ers just don’t score, but all we might need is a little help from the road side.

3. UCLA at Oregon

Line: Oregon -11.5
ATS Pick: Oregon
– Game Preview and Prediction
I want UCLA to be a thing. It was my call this offseason (by the way, Indiana was my call two years ago to be a big surprise team – but no, I certainly didn’t see that coming), and it’s a fun team to root for.
I like Bob Chesney, the style of play is a blast to watch, and … the Bruins are about to get lit up by this Oregon offense that will be just fine with Dylan Raiola under center. UCLA won’t get wiped out, but the Ducks will get a few late scores to get there.

2. Georgia at Alabama

Line: Point Total 51.5
ATS Pick: Under
– Game Preview and Prediction
I am perfectly okay taking this journey alone, and like South Carolina vs Florida, I might change this fast on Saturday if the forecast changes. But at around 7:30ish CT in the greater Tuscaloosa metropolitan area, the forecast calls for about a 30% chance of rain after two days of storms. But that’s not the issue.
The wind is expected to be about 10 to 20 miles per hour – the respective kicking games could be a mess. All of that, and remember, these two defenses are a fat load of fantastic. This might not be a track meet even in perfect conditions.
By the way, last year: Alabama 24, Georgia 21, and then Georgia 28, Alabama 7. Four of the last five between these two have gone under 52.

1. Arizona at West Virginia

Line: Point Total 60.5
ATS Pick: Over
– Game Preview and Prediction
You know my horrendous, occasionally catastrophic issues with my No. 1 pick.
Even last week, when I had the glorious moment of that late Florida pass to hit the over, that was combined with my outright call of the Gators -4.5, which couldn’t possibly be more wrong. (As always, it’s my No. 1 pick – use this however you need to, but wear a helmet.)
Don’t think, just throw … or run. Welcome to West Virginia. It’s last three games: 38-27 (65) over Virginia, a 41-24 (65) loss to Oklahoma State, and a 45-42 (87) loss at Iowa State. Meanwhile, Arizona has scored 34 on everyone but BYU this season.
Like I said last week with the Florida point total, if the over doesn’t hit, short memory, tip your cap, and it’s on to the next play.

Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.